Peterborough vs Reading FA Cup prediction & result
Final score: Peterborough 0-5 Reading.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Peterborough, 27% draw, 44% Reading — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Reading at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Peterborough vs Reading
Line-ups
- 1A. BassG
- 18Lucca MendonçaD
- 5S. HughesD
- 6T. O'ConnorD
- 14Harley MillsD
- 8B. KhelaM
- 45Harry AshfieldM
- 19Bolu ShofowokeM
- 28M. GarbettM
- 10Ethan WilliamsM
- 9H. LeonardF
- 33James DornellyD
- 12Joshua FeeneyD
- 7Harrison JonesM
- 4L. KellyM
- 21P. SykutM
- 27D. OrmerodF
- 17Vernon MasaraF
- 39Nathaniel JosephM
- 23C. Andeng NdiG
- 1Joel PereiraG
- 2U. Godwin-MalifeD
- 20J. KnightD
- 15P. O'ConnorD
- 5H. RobertsD
- 6L. FraserM
- 4A. RinomhotaM
- 19Kyreece LisbieM
- 8C. SavageM
- 11D. KyerewaaM
- 7J. MarriottF
- 10L. WingM
- 14R. WilliamsM
- 28J. StokesM
- 25J. StevensG
- 9J. ReidF
- 22S. PattonF
- 49E. OshoD
- 23C. MastersonD
- 39A. AhmedD
Form going into Peterborough vs Reading
Peterborough
League One
- L0-2Luton31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bromley24 October 2026
- L1-4away to Huddersfield20 October 2026
- D2-2Burton Albion17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Leicester10 October 2026
Reading
League One
- L0-2away to Oxford United4 November 2026
- D0-0away to Plymouth31 October 2026
- W2-1Barnsley24 October 2026
- W1-0Leyton Orient21 October 2026
What these results say
- Peterborough conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Reading had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Peterborough | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 10 |
| 7 | Reading | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Peterborough vs Reading
- 29 December 2025Peterborough 1–1 ReadingLeague One
- 9 December 2025Reading 1–2 PeterboroughLeague One
- 29 March 2025Reading 3–1 PeterboroughLeague One
- 23 November 2024Peterborough 1–2 ReadingLeague One
- 26 December 2023Peterborough 2–2 ReadingLeague One
- 5 August 2023Reading 0–1 PeterboroughLeague One
Leading scorers: Peterborough and Reading
Peterborough
No player in League One's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Reading
GoalsAssists
- J. Marriott90
- Kyreece Lisbie55
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Reading won 5–0 at Peterborough. The model had made a win for Reading its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Daniel·Kyerewaa 26' for Reading, Jack Marriott 34' for Reading, Charlie Savage 45+4' for Reading, Jamie Reid 72' for Reading, Jamie Reid 76' for Reading.
How the call on Peterborough v Reading has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 31% / 26% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 29% / 27% / 44%: the biggest move is Peterborough's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Peterborough win29%▼ −2
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Reading win44%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.