7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

York vs Northampton FA Cup prediction & result

York Community Stadium, York
Full time4 – 0

Final score: York 4-0 Northampton.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% York, 29% draw, 25% Northampton — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

York at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

York99%Draw1%Northampton0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ollie Pearce
1'
⚽Ollie Pearce
11'
12'
🔁Zach Jeacockout: J. Dadge
⚽Alex Huntassist: Harry Boyes
29'
41'
Joe Wormleighton
🔁Mark Kitchingout: Zech Medley
45'
45'
🔁Max Dycheout: Conor McCarthy
🔁Harry Boyesout: Alex Newby
61'
🔁Alex Huntout: Frankie Maguire
61'
🔁Hiram Boatengout: J. Stones
61'
66'
🔁Elliott Listout: Logan briggs
66'
🔁Jon Guthrieout: josh powell
🔁Ollie Pearceout: jovan malcolm
73'
⚽J. Stonesassist: Joseph Rabole Felix
81'

Match stats — York vs Northampton

66%Possession34%
11Shots11
6On target2
5Corners2

Line-ups

York 3-4-2-1
  • 1Alfie Shane McNallyG
  • 2R. FallowfieldD
  • 5Z. JohnsonD
  • 3M. KitchingD
  • 23J. FelixM
  • 8A. HuntM
  • 16A. ReadM
  • 12H. BoyesM
  • 21H. BoatengM
  • 28O. BanksM
  • 10O. PearceF
Substitutes
  • 32J. HuntD
  • 15J. KingD
  • 11F. MaguireM
  • 18J. MalcolmF
  • 4Z. MedleyD
  • 30A. NewbyM
  • 31G. Sykes-KenworthyG
  • 9J. StonesF
  • 7J. GreyF
Coach: S. Lindsey
Northampton 4-4-2
  • 1Z. JeacockG
  • 3J. MaxwellD
  • 5J. GuthrieD
  • 6E. MooreD
  • 35M. DycheD
  • 19O. DaleM
  • 14T. FornahM
  • 8L. EvansM
  • 16J. WormleightonM
  • 9Matthew WarhurstF
  • 10E. ListF
Substitutes
  • 11K. Simon-SwyerF
  • 22Joshua Alan PowellD
  • 32H. SaundersF
  • 15C. McCarthyD
  • 24C. Lemonheigh-EvansM
  • 26S. ChambersM
  • 20L. BriggsM
  • 31J. DadgeG
Coach: C. Hogg

Form going into York vs Northampton

York

League Two

  • L2-5away to Grimsby31 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Barnet27 October 2026
  • W2-0Port Vale24 October 2026
  • D1-1Accrington Stanley20 October 2026

Northampton

League Two

  • L0-1Oldham3 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Accrington Stanley31 October 2026
  • W2-0Colchester24 October 2026
  • L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026

What these results say

  • York scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • York failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • York conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
  • Northampton failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Northampton conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4York156542521+423
19Northampton143651011-115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: York vs Northampton

  • 10 October 2026York 1–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 23 February 2016York 1–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 6 February 2016Northampton 2–0 YorkLeague Two
  • 21 February 2015Northampton 3–0 YorkLeague Two
  • 16 August 2014York 1–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 11 January 2014Northampton 0–2 YorkLeague Two

Leading scorers: York and Northampton

York

GoalsAssists

  • O. Pearce74
  • A. Newby61

Northampton

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

York beat Northampton 4–0. The model had made a win for York its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ollie Pearce 1' for York, Ollie Pearce 11' for York, Alex Hunt 29' for York, J. Stones 81' for York.

How the call on York v Northampton has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 51% / 28% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is York's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. York win46%▼ −5
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Northampton win25%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.