Oxford United vs Stevenage FA Cup prediction & result
Final score: Oxford United 0-1 Stevenage.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Oxford United, 28% draw, 20% Stevenage — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Oxford United at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Oxford United vs Stevenage
Line-ups
- 13S. EastwoodG
- 2S. LongD
- 46Aaron LaceyD
- 25J. GoldingD
- 22G. LeighD
- 57M. MissangaM
- 44H. BradneyM
- 11T. GoodrhamM
- 27L. SnowdenM
- 20L. LynchF
- 19G. O'DonkorF
- 12R. RooskenF
- 41Monty MarriottG
- 45Jack LeeF
- 48L GriffithsF
- 10A. EmakhuF
- 32L. SibleyM
- 65Albie James CollinsD
- 54J. HoltonM
- 59Maeson VaughanM
- 1T. SetfordG
- 15T. VancootenD
- 16K. CaseyD
- 5C. PiergianniD
- 14S. EarleyD
- 18O. SandersonM
- 23L. ThompsonM
- 8D. PhillipsM
- 44P. PattersonM
- 27B. BroggioF
- 19T. TurhanF
- 20C. CampbellM
- 9J. MagennisF
- 25Wanya MarçalF
- 28M. MellonF
- 24M. SmithM
- 7T. TaylorM
- 36M. WoodfordG
- 39Alfie ThornettD
- 37Tatenda MutangaM
Form going into Oxford United vs Stevenage
Oxford United
League One
- W2-0Reading4 November 2026
- D1-1away to Barnsley31 October 2026
- W1-0Stockport County27 October 2026
- D0-0Bradford24 October 2026
- W2-1Wigan20 October 2026
Stevenage
League One
- D2-2away to Leicester31 October 2026
- L0-1Milton Keynes Dons24 October 2026
- W3-0Plymouth20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bradford17 October 2026
- W1-0Wigan10 October 2026
What these results say
- Oxford United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Oxford United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Oxford United had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Oxford United | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Oxford United vs Stevenage
- 22 August 2026Stevenage 1–2 Oxford UnitedLeague One
- 19 April 2024Oxford United 1–1 StevenageLeague One
- 30 September 2023Stevenage 1–3 Oxford UnitedLeague One
- 5 October 2021Oxford United 1–2 StevenageEFL Trophy
- 29 August 2017Stevenage 2–6 Oxford UnitedEFL Trophy
- 25 March 2016Oxford United 1–1 StevenageLeague Two
Leading scorers: Oxford United and Stevenage
Oxford United
GoalsAssists
- M. Harris61
- G. O'Donkor42
Stevenage
No player in League One's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Stevenage won 1–0 at Oxford United. The model had leaned towards a win for Oxford United at 52% and given a win for Stevenage 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Carl Piergianni 4' for Stevenage.
How the call on Oxford United v Stevenage has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 52% / 28% / 20%: the biggest move is Stevenage's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Oxford United win52%▲ +1
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Stevenage win20%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.