1 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Omonia Aradippou vs Apoel Nicosia 1. Division prediction & result

Antonis Papadopoulos Stadium, Larnaca
Referee: Kyriakos Athanasiou, Cyprus
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Omonia Aradippou 1-2 Apoel Nicosia.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Omonia Aradippou, 30% draw, 43% Apoel Nicosia — fair odds of 3.70, 3.33 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Apoel Nicosia at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Omonia Aradippou0%Draw3%Apoel Nicosia97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
Joan Sastre
Vernon De Marco
26'
gonzalez mathias
28'
Vernon De Marco
36'
45+2'
Anastasios Bakasetas
🔁gonzalez mathiasout: Bogdan·Petrovic
46'
🔁Giorgos Pontikosout: Helaku Josué Schmidt
46'
Sebastián Lomónaco
58'
63'
🔁Antonín Barákout: Daniel Mancini
🔁Sebastián Lomónacoout: michalis koumouris
64'
⚽Bogdan·Petrovic
72'
73'
🔁Marquinhosout: Stylianos Vrontis
73'
🔁Dalcioout: Filip Đuričić
77'
⚽Anastasios Bakasetas
84'
Daniel Mancini
Niko Havelka
88'
89'
⚽Anastasios Bakasetas
90'
🔁Álvaro Carrilloout: Stavros Georgiou
90'
🔁Dimitris Limniosout: Angel Garcia Cabezali
🔁Jairo Izquierdoout: andreas nikolaou
90'
🔁Achraf bouchataoui elout: curtis makosso
90'

Match stats — Omonia Aradippou vs Apoel Nicosia

52%Possession48%
10Shots12
7On target6
6Corners3

Line-ups

Omonia Aradippou
  • 22M. AntoniouD
  • 3A. ChristofiD
  • 34Danny Agostinho HenriquesD
  • 81V. De MarcoD
  • 8A. El BouchataouiM
  • 6N. HavelkaM
  • 20Jairo IzquierdoD
  • 12Ž. ŽivkovićG
  • 27S. LomónacoF
  • 41Mathias GonzalezF
  • 9G. PontikosF
Substitutes
  • 1Gabriel PereiraG
  • 11Konstantinos AnthimouF
  • 15Unai GarcíaD
  • 7M. KoumourisF
  • 37A. LoizouM
  • 25Andreas NikolaouD
  • 91K. PanteliD
  • 88G. PapacharalampousG
  • 23Bogdan PetrovicF
Coach: G. Okkas
Apoel Nicosia
  • 15F. PedrozoF
  • 10MarquinhosF
  • 18D. LimniosF
  • 34K. LaifisD
  • 8DálcioM
  • 16Álvaro CarrilloD
  • 72A. BarákM
  • 9A. BakasetasM
  • 27V. BelecG
Coach: N. Papadopoulos

Form going into Omonia Aradippou vs Apoel Nicosia

Omonia Aradippou

1. Division

  • L0-2away to Anorthosis24 October 2026
  • L0-2AEL18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to AEK Larnaca12 October 2026

Apoel Nicosia

1. Division

  • W4-1Omonia 29is Maiou25 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Pafos19 October 2026
  • W2-1Nea Salamis10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Omonia Aradippou9135713-66
4Apoel Nicosia95222111+1017

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Omonia Aradippou vs Apoel Nicosia

  • 23 January 2026Apoel Nicosia 1–1 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
  • 3 October 2025Omonia Aradippou 0–4 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
  • 26 January 2025Apoel Nicosia 7–0 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
  • 19 October 2024Omonia Aradippou 0–5 Apoel Nicosia1. Division

Leading scorers: Omonia Aradippou and Apoel Nicosia

Omonia Aradippou

No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Apoel Nicosia

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pedrozo50
  • Marquinhos20
  • K. Stafylidis11

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Apoel Nicosia won 2–1 at Omonia Aradippou. The model had made a win for Apoel Nicosia its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Bogdan·Petrovic 72' for Omonia Aradippou, Anastasios Bakasetas 77' for Apoel Nicosia, Anastasios Bakasetas 89' for Apoel Nicosia. Sent off: Joan Sastre (Apoel Nicosia) 1', Vernon De Marco (Omonia Aradippou) 36'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Omonia Aradippou a 44.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.1% after a win, 44.4% after a draw, 50.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.4%, 6 points higher than before the match.

For Apoel Nicosia the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 72.3% going in: 77.9% after a win, 70.6% after a draw, 66.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.9%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Omonia Aradippou v Apoel Nicosia has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 27% / 30% / 43%: the biggest move is Omonia Aradippou's chance of winning, down 8 points.

  1. Omonia Aradippou win27%▼ −8
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Apoel Nicosia win43%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.