BSK Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo Premijer Liga prediction & result
Final score: BSK Banja Luka 1-1 FK Sarajevo.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% BSK Banja Luka, 27% draw, 41% FK Sarajevo — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FK Sarajevo at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 31Srđan ModićG
- 4Zoran KvržićD
- 5Diouf Cherif AtabD
- 30Domagoj ČulinaD
- 18Aleksandar SubićD
- 32Juraj LjubićM
- 8Boro ErićM
- 14Ognjen RadoševićM
- 28Denis DizdarevicM
- 49Stefan MarčetićF
- 22David ČavićM
- 24Fedor PredragovićM
- 7Nedim KeranovicM
- 77Aleksa StuparG
- 11Marko RadićD
- 17Filip RačićD
- 21Milijan KovacevicD
- 26Nebojša RunićD
- 10David GavricM
- 19Marko BundaloM
- 31Ivan BanićG
- 22Amar BeganovićD
- 18Matija GlogovacD
- 2Shane MaroodzaD
- 70Selmir PidroD
- 20Agon EleziM
- 38Souleymane MéitéM
- 7Ivan ŠarićM
- 14Vedad LetoM
- 9Leo MikićM
- 99Bartol BarišićF
- 35Sergej IgnatkovM
- 11Francis KyeremehM
- 77Mihael KuprešakM
- 8Antonio GalešićM
- 16Muhamed DrecaM
- 13Sanin MusijaG
- 17Filip KosiD
- 27Luka HujberD
- 24Filip ŽivkovićM
Form going into BSK Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo
BSK Banja Luka
Premijer Liga
- W3-2away to Velež25 October 2026
- D1-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Borac Banja Luka10 October 2026
FK Sarajevo
Premijer Liga
- W2-0Zeljeznicar Sarajevo24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Radnik Bijeljina17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Čelik11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BSK Banja Luka | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: BSK Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo
- 21 August 2026FK Sarajevo 1–0 BSK Banja LukaPremijer Liga
Leading scorers: BSK Banja Luka and FK Sarajevo
BSK Banja Luka
GoalsAssists
- D. Čavić31
- S. Marčetić20
- D. Dizdarevic11
FK Sarajevo
GoalsAssists
- R. Caraballo20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
BSK Banja Luka and FK Sarajevo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FK Sarajevo at 41% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: D. Cavic 60' for BSK Banja Luka, L. Mikic 65' for FK Sarajevo. Sent off: L. Mikic (FK Sarajevo) 90+5'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave BSK Banja Luka a 28.5% chance to finish in the top four: 34.5% after a win, 28.0% after a draw, 23.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 28.0%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.
For FK Sarajevo the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 93.4% going in: 95.6% after a win, 92.8% after a draw, 91.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 92.8%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premijer Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.