1 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Cerro Porteno vs Olimpia Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio General Pablo Rojas
Referee: Juan Gabriel Benitez
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Cerro Porteno 0-2 Olimpia.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Cerro Porteno, 28% draw, 35% Olimpia — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cerro Porteno at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cerro Porteno0%Draw1%Olimpia99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Eduardo Delmasassist: Alan Rodríguez
23'
Bryan Bentaberry
🔁Lucas Merollaout: A. Cañete
45'
🔁Carlos Rubén Chena Báezout: Gastón Giménez
45'
55'
🔁Franco Alfonsoout: Bernardo Romeo Benitez Farina
55'
🔁Alex Fernando Franco Zayasout: Rodney Redes
64'
🔁Gabriel Ávalosout: Sebastián Ferreira
64'
🔁Eduardo Delmasout: Richard Sánchez
🔁Mateo Klimowiczout: Derlis Osmar Rodríguez Maciel
65'
67'
⚽Bernardo Romeo Benitez Farina
68'
Bernardo Romeo Benitez Farina
69'
Víctor Sebastián Quintana Herrera
Cesar Bobadilla
69'
🔁Cesar Bobadillaout: Sergio Araujo
75'
77'
Sebastián Ferreira
Gustavo Velázquez
79'
Pablo Vegetti
89'
🔁Ignacio Alisedaout: Jonathan Gabriel Torres
90+2'
90+4'
🔁Raúl Alejandro Cáceres Bogadoout: Gustavo David Vargas Areco

Match stats — Cerro Porteno vs Olimpia

70%Possession30%
24Shots12
6On target7
10Corners0
1.38xG1.18

Goals against chances

Cerro Porteno0 from 1.38 xGless than the chances were worth
Olimpia2 from 1.18 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cerro Porteno 4-1-4-1
  • 12A. MartínezG
  • 16I. RamírezD
  • 23G. VelázquezD
  • 6L. MerollaD
  • 15B. RiverosD
  • 5J. MorelM
  • 31I. AlisedaM
  • 32C. BobadillaM
  • 34C. ChenaM
  • 40M. KlimowiczM
  • 19P. VegettiF
Substitutes
  • 27J. TorresF
  • 4A. CañeteD
  • 35M. ChaparroD
  • 38Amín CristaldoM
  • 18A. GamarraM
  • 30G. GiménezM
  • 33H. MosqueraF
  • 21S. AraújoF
  • 7D. RodríguezM
Coach: G. Costas
Olimpia 4-1-3-2
  • 1G. OlveiraG
  • 27R. CáceresD
  • 2B. BentaberryD
  • 15M. GamarraD
  • 30A. RodríguezD
  • 6R. OrtizM
  • 8A. FrancoM
  • 7F. CardozoM
  • 20E. DelmásM
  • 9G. ÁvalosF
  • 35F. AlfonsoF
Substitutes
  • 37R. BenitezM
  • 11S. FerreiraF
  • 10D. GonzálezF
  • 29I. LeguizamónM
  • 12S. LentinellyG
  • 23E. MatusM
  • 4T. PayneD
  • 18S. QuintanaM
  • 17R. RedesF
Coach: P. Sánchez

Form going into Cerro Porteno vs Olimpia

Cerro Porteno

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo25 October 2026
  • D2-2Sportivo Ameliano18 October 2026

Olimpia

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-2away to Sportivo Ameliano25 October 2026
  • W3-02 de Mayo17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Cerro Porteno198472520+528
1Olimpia1913333714+2342

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cerro Porteno vs Olimpia

  • 23 August 2026Olimpia 2–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 19 April 2026Olimpia 3–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 21 February 2026Cerro Porteno 0–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 19 October 2025Cerro Porteno 1–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 3 August 2025Olimpia 2–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 3 May 2025Cerro Porteno 1–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Cerro Porteno and Olimpia

Cerro Porteno

GoalsAssists

  • P. Vegetti80
  • J. Morel50
  • D. Rodríguez45

Olimpia

GoalsAssists

  • G. Ávalos83
  • A. Alcaraz71
  • R. Benitez43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Olimpia won 2–0 at Cerro Porteno. The model had leaned towards a win for Cerro Porteno at 37% and given a win for Olimpia 35%. The goals: Eduardo Delmas 13' for Olimpia, Bernardo Romeo Benitez Farina 67' for Olimpia. On expected goals it finished 1.38–1.18.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cerro Porteno a 12.3% chance to finish in the top four: 19.5% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 5.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.2%, 7.1 points lower than before the match.

For Olimpia the question was the chance to win the league, 67.0% going in: 82.0% after a win, 65.6% after a draw, 54.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.0%, 15 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.