Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Omonia Nicosia 1-0 Celta Vigo.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Omonia Nicosia, 31% draw, 37% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Celta Vigo at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40FabianoG
- 93J. DuverneD
- 5S. CoulibalyD
- 37L. SatkaD
- 29J. BalkovecD
- 74P. AndreouM
- 14M. MaricM
- 11Costa EwandroM
- 22M. TankovicM
- 7J. MontnorM
- 99L. DionyF
- 78P. MichailG
- 1T. KaminskiG
- 27S. SimicD
- 82A. Christou
- 77L. NegoD
- 90C. KonstantinidisD
- 92P. ChristoforouM
- 20L. BrouwersM
- 17F. TanaseM
- 13I. RaduG
- 20J. RodriguezD
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 3M. AlonsoD
- 15A. NunezM
- 8M. RomanM
- 5S. CarreiraM
- 24C. DriouechM
- 30H. BurcioF
- 11P. DuranF
- 9F. JutglaF
- 1A. BayindirG
- 22J. GalanD
- 21S. CaceresD
- 17J. RuedaD
- 18Y. LagoD
- 4A. FayeD
- 6I. MoribaM
- 14A. FebasM
- 16H. GonzalezF
Form going into Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
Omonia Nicosia
All competitions we cover
- W4-2St. Truiden27 August 2026
- L0-1away to St. Truiden20 August 2026
- W1-0Lincoln Red Imps FC13 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln Red Imps FC6 August 2026
- L0-1away to Kairat Almaty29 July 2026
Celta Vigo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
What these results say
- Omonia Nicosia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Omonia Nicosia had two goals or fewer.
- Celta Vigo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Celta Vigo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Celta Vigo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Omonia Nicosia and Celta Vigo
Omonia Nicosia
GoalsAssists
- L. Diony50
Celta Vigo
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Omonia Nicosia beat Celta Vigo 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Celta Vigo at 37% and given a win for Omonia Nicosia 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: J. Balkovec 88' for Omonia Nicosia. On expected goals it finished 0.32–1.17.
How the call on Omonia Nicosia v Celta Vigo has moved
First published on 2 Sep at 31% / 30% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 32% / 31% / 37%: the biggest move is Celta Vigo's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Omonia Nicosia win32%▲ +1
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Celta Vigo win37%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.