Omonia Nicosia
vs
Celta Vigo
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Omonia Nicosia 1-0 Celta Vigo.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Omonia Nicosia, 31% draw, 36% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Omonia Nicosia 1.06, Celta Vigo 1.17.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta Vigo at 36% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
Omonia Nicosia
- W4-2St. Truiden27 August 2026
- L0-1away to St. Truiden20 August 2026
- W1-0Lincoln Red Imps FC13 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln Red Imps FC6 August 2026
Celta Vigo
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 33 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Omonia Nicosia carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.67 for Celta Vigo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Omonia Nicosia and 1.17 for Celta Vigo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Omonia Nicosia rate 0.55 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celta Vigo rate 0.83 and 1.19.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Omonia Nicosia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celta Vigo the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia against 1.17 for Celta Vigo. Omonia Nicosia's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.19 for Celta Vigo.