Sturm Graz
vs
Rennes
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Sturm Graz 0-0 Rennes.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Sturm Graz, 28% draw, 45% Rennes — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.09, Rennes 1.74.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Sturm Graz vs Rennes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rennes at 45% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sturm Graz vs Rennes
Sturm Graz
- W2-1Lask Linz13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
- D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
- W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
- L0-1Fenerbahçe11 August 2026
Rennes
- W1-0Marseille11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
- W3-2Le Mans30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Paris Saint Germain23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Sturm Graz carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.87 for Rennes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.74 for Rennes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sturm Graz rate 0.65 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rennes rate 1.07 and 1.03.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rennes the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Sturm Graz against 1.74 for Rennes. Sturm Graz's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.03 for Rennes.