Sturm Graz vs Rennes UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Sturm Graz 0-0 Rennes.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Sturm Graz, 28% draw, 45% Rennes — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Rennes at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Rennes
Line-ups
- 53D. KhudyakovG
- 28J. HeilD
- 5A. VallciD
- 2J. QuarshieD
- 30P. KollerD
- 27L. BalboD
- 39L. WeinhandlM
- 78V. MatoshiM
- 43J. HodlM
- 26B. BeganovicF
- 15G. MamageishviliF
- 22A. HelacG
- 41E. LorenzG
- 21P. PetrovicD
- 23A. MalicD
- 19S. SeidlM
- 8F. Rozga
- 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
- 40J. HalwachsM
- 25L. GrgicF
- 30B. SambaG
- 14B. ReynoldsD
- 4C. CresswellD
- 24A. RouaultD
- 18M. NagidaD
- 45M. CamaraM
- 10L. BlasM
- 17S. SzymanskiM
- 28A. ThomassonM
- 11M. TamariM
- 9E. LepaulF
- 16N. LemaitreG
- 60K. BelazzougG
- 26Q. MerlinD
- 36A. SeiduD
- 5G. OliveiraD
- 48A. Ait BoudlalD
- 21V. RongierM
- 70A. NordinF
- 90I. SoumareF
Form going into Sturm Graz vs Rennes
Sturm Graz
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Lask Linz13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
- D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
- W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
- L0-1Fenerbahçe11 August 2026
Rennes
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Marseille11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
- W3-2Le Mans30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Paris Saint Germain23 August 2026
What these results say
- Sturm Graz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rennes went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Rennes scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Rennes won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Rennes
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité30
Rennes
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sturm Graz and Rennes drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Rennes at 45% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
How the call on Sturm Graz v Rennes has moved
First published on 2 Sep at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 27% / 28% / 45%: the biggest move is Sturm Graz's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Sturm Graz win27%▼ −5
- Draw28%=
- Rennes win45%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.