Sunderland
vs
AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Sunderland, 29% draw, 26% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.67, AZ Alkmaar 1.01.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sunderland at 45% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar
Sunderland
- L0-2Arsenal12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brentford5 September 2026
- W1-0Fulham30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich22 August 2026
AZ Alkmaar
- D1-1Willem II11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Heerenveen6 September 2026
- W5-2GO Ahead Eagles29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Fortuna Sittard22 August 2026
- W4-1away to Utrecht15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 32 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sunderland carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.75 for AZ Alkmaar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Sunderland and 1.01 for AZ Alkmaar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sunderland rate 0.91 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AZ Alkmaar rate 0.92 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sunderland the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sunderland against 1.01 for AZ Alkmaar. Sunderland's attack/defence rating is 0.91/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.13 for AZ Alkmaar.