Bayer Leverkusen
vs
Celje
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Celje.
Before kick-off the model made it 71% Bayer Leverkusen, 19% draw, 10% Celje — fair odds of 1.41, 5.26 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 3.06, Celje 0.56.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 71% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje
Bayer Leverkusen
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg12 September 2026
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
Celje
- L1-2Slovan Bratislava26 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slovan Bratislava19 August 2026
- W2-0Ararat-Armenia11 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ararat-Armenia4 August 2026
- D1-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë28 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 34 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
A clear gap in the ratings
Bayer Leverkusen carry a model rating of 7.05 against 6.36 for Celje. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.06 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.56 for Celje. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bayer Leverkusen rate 1.22 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celje rate 0.57 and 1.54.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.06 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen against 0.56 for Celje. Bayer Leverkusen's attack/defence rating is 1.22/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.54 for Celje.