23 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Operario-PR vs Athletic Club MG Serie B prediction & result

Ponta Grossa
Referee: Maguielson Lima Barbosa, Brazil
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Operario-PR 1-0 Athletic Club MG.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Operario-PR, 25% draw, 31% Athletic Club MG — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Operario-PR at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Operario-PR96%Draw4%Athletic Club MG0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Brenno
12'
⚽Caio Dantasassist: Dudu
29'
45'
Jhonatan
45'
🔁José Carlos Cracco Netoout: Enzo Henrique dos Santos
45'
🔁Dixon Veraout: Wilinton Aponza Carabali
45'
🔁Pedro Henrique de Oliveiraout: Philipe Sampaio Azevedo
64'
🔁Felipe Negrucci Berdagueout: Joao Victor Broad Moreira Guimaraes
🔁Duduout: Hildeberto Pereira
67'
🔁Maguinhoout: Miranda
77'
🔁Onitlasi Júnior de Moraes Rodriguesout: André
77'
81'
🔁Diogo·Batista de Souzaout: Maswel Ananias Silva
🔁Caio Dantasout: Leonardo Erig Daitx
83'
🔁Brennoout: Mikael Doka
83'
André
90'
90+6'
Wilinton Aponza Carabali
90+8'
Jhonatan
Hildeberto Pereira
90+11'
90+14'
Lucas Belezi

Match stats — Operario-PR vs Athletic Club MG

45%Possession55%
14Shots15
3On target2
6Corners10
0.67xG0.84

Goals against chances

Operario-PR1 from 0.67 xGabout what the chances were worth
Athletic Club MG0 from 0.84 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Operario-PR 4-4-2
  • 1Elias Martello CurzelG
  • 26MaguinhoD
  • 22J. CuenúD
  • 43JosephD
  • 27Gabriel FelicianoD
  • 21BrennoM
  • 20Vinícius DinizM
  • 5ÍndioM
  • 6MoraesM
  • 28DuduF
  • 99Caio DantasF
Substitutes
  • 18AndréD
  • 4KlausD
  • 2Mikael DokaD
  • 16MirandaD
  • 88Neto ParaíbaM
  • 30Pedro VilhenaM
  • 14Hildeberto PereiraF
  • 33VagnerG
  • 8J. ZuluagaM
Coach: Alberto Valentim
Athletic Club MG 4-2-3-1
  • 1Luan PolliG
  • 22Diogo BatistaD
  • 3JhonatanD
  • 4Lucas BeleziD
  • 6ZecaD
  • 5Felipe NegrucciM
  • 16João MiguelM
  • 18Pedro OliveiraM
  • 17KauanM
  • 21D. VeraM
  • 9CarlinhosF
Substitutes
  • 2Douglas PeléD
  • 23EnzoD
  • 26GlaucoG
  • 15JotaM
  • 13Philipe SampaioD
  • 14Yago SantosM
  • 10YarlenF
  • 20W. AponzaF
  • 12TonyG
Coach: Alex

Form going into Operario-PR vs Athletic Club MG

Operario-PR

Serie B

  • L0-1away to America Mineiro17 October 2026

Athletic Club MG

Serie B

  • D0-0away to Avai18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Operario-PR38169135150+157
13Athletic Club MG381115124646048

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Operario-PR vs Athletic Club MG

  • 7 July 2026Athletic Club MG 0–1 Operario-PRSerie B
  • 8 October 2025Operario-PR 1–4 Athletic Club MGSerie B
  • 14 June 2025Athletic Club MG 2–1 Operario-PRSerie B

Leading scorers: Operario-PR and Athletic Club MG

Operario-PR

GoalsAssists

  • Boschilia134
  • Vinícius Diniz71

Athletic Club MG

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 46 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Operario-PR beat Athletic Club MG 1–0. The model had made a win for Operario-PR its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Caio Dantas 29' for Operario-PR. Sent off: Jhonatan (Athletic Club MG) 90+8'. On expected goals it finished 0.67–0.84.

How the call on Operario-PR v Athletic Club MG has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 47% / 24% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 25% / 31%: the biggest move is Operario-PR's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Operario-PR win44%▼ −3
  2. Draw25%▲ +1
  3. Athletic Club MG win31%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.