24 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Antonio Accioly, Goiania
Referee: Yuri Elino Ferreira Da Cruz, Brazil
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Atletico Goianiense 0-1 Novorizontino.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Atletico Goianiense, 28% draw, 38% Novorizontino — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Novorizontino at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Goianiense0%Draw4%Novorizontino96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

José Domingos de Moraes Neto
15'
Gustavo Maia da Silva
32'
45+7'
Enderson Alves Moreira
45'
🔁Jordiout: César
🔁Guilherme Lopesout: Gustavo Daniel da Silva Gonçalves
56'
56'
🔁Nicolas Morês da Cruzout: Diego Galo
Daniel Nascimento Peixoto dos Santos
58'
60'
⚽Eduardo Brock
63'
Madson Ferreira dos Santos
Marrony da Silva Liberato Silveira
67'
🔁Marrony da Silva Liberato Silveiraout: David Terans
67'
🔁Gustavo Maia da Silvaout: Henrique
67'
🔁Daniel Nascimento Peixoto dos Santosout: Bruno José
67'
68'
🔁Madson Ferreira dos Santosout: Alexis·Alvarino
68'
🔁Luís Oyamaout: Leonardo Naldi de Matos
🔁Gustavo Coutinho Silva Lopesout: João Pedro
75'
78'
Francisco Reidiney Duarte Gomes
86'
🔁Matheus Henrique Bianquiout: Juninho
90+4'
Alexis·Alvarino

Match stats — Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino

68%Possession32%
24Shots17
4On target6
7Corners5
2.84xG0.99

Goals against chances

Atletico Goianiense0 from 2.84 xGless than the chances were worth
Novorizontino1 from 0.99 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Goianiense 4-2-3-1
  • 1Paulo VítorG
  • 2WarleyD
  • 3GebsonD
  • 4Adriano MartinsD
  • 6Guilherme LopesD
  • 5PeixotoM
  • 8NetinhoM
  • 7Soares GeovanyM
  • 10MarronyM
  • 11Gustavo MaiaM
  • 9Gustavo CoutinhoF
Substitutes
  • 15Gustavo DanielD
  • 20D. TeransM
  • 18João PedroF
  • 21MatheusinhoM
  • 16CristianoM
  • 17Henrique Freitas AlvesM
  • 19Guilherme MarquesM
  • 12Paulo HenriqueG
  • 13EwerthonD
Coach: Roger
Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
  • 93JordiG
  • 2MadsonD
  • 3CarlinhosD
  • 14Eduardo BrockD
  • 4PatrickD
  • 17Matheus BianquiM
  • 6Luis OyamaM
  • 41ReidineyM
  • 10RomuloM
  • 30Nicolas CarecaM
  • 9CarlãoF
Substitutes
  • 22A. AlvariñoM
  • 7Ronald BarcellosF
  • 19Diego GaloM
  • 24J. LoraD
  • 40Jardiel Maciel Libertino da SilvaM
  • 27Diego MathiasF
  • 18Léo NaldiM
  • 8C. OrtízF
  • 28MarlonM
Coach: Enderson Moreira

Form going into Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino

Atletico Goianiense

Serie B

  • D1-1away to Ponte Preta16 October 2026

Novorizontino

Serie B

  • D2-2away to Vila Nova18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Atletico Goianiense38161394635+1161
1Novorizontino38211076732+3573

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino

  • 4 July 2026Novorizontino 3–0 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
  • 8 September 2025Novorizontino 1–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
  • 4 May 2025Atletico Goianiense 1–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
  • 1 November 2023Atletico Goianiense 2–2 NovorizontinoSerie B
  • 7 July 2023Novorizontino 2–2 Atletico GoianienseSerie B

Leading scorers: Atletico Goianiense and Novorizontino

Atletico Goianiense

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo Coutinho150

Novorizontino

GoalsAssists

  • Robson165
  • Romulo119
  • Matheus Bianqui70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Novorizontino won 1–0 at Atletico Goianiense. The model had made a win for Novorizontino its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Eduardo Brock 60' for Novorizontino. On expected goals it finished 2.84–0.99.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Novorizontino a 36.9% chance to win the league: 55.9% after a win, 31.0% after a draw, 20.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.9%, 19 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Atletico Goianiense v Novorizontino has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 28% / 38%: the biggest move is Novorizontino's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Atletico Goianiense win34%▼ −1
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Novorizontino win38%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.