24 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Avai vs Botafogo SP Serie B prediction & result

Ressacada
Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Avai 0-2 Botafogo SP.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Avai, 29% draw, 30% Botafogo SP — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Avai at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Avai0%Draw1%Botafogo SP99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
José Hugo Sousa dos Santos
Luiz Henrique
43'
43'
⚽Morelliassist: Patrick Brey
🔁Luiz Henriqueout: Paulo Vitor
45'
54'
⚽Leandro Macielassist: Patrick Brey
🔁Rildo Goncalves de Amorin Filhoout: Gaspar
58'
🔁Caio Suassuna Gonçalves Ferreiraout: Léo Gamalho
58'
Allyson Aires Dos Santos
61'
🔁Jefferson Macielout: Hyan
72'
🔁Zé Ricardoout: Pedro Henrique Franklim da Silva
72'
74'
🔁Rafael Gavaout: Matheus Sales
75'
🔁Leandro Macielout: Marco Antonio de Freitas Batistussi
85'
🔁Morelliout: Thiago Henrique Moraes
90'
🔁Hygorout: Hebert Willian Badaro Oliveira
90'
🔁José Hugo Sousa dos Santosout: Arthur Caíke

Match stats — Avai vs Botafogo SP

58%Possession42%
28Shots6
8On target3
14Corners2
1.66xG0.76

Goals against chances

Avai0 from 1.66 xGless than the chances were worth
Botafogo SP2 from 0.76 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Avai 4-2-3-1
  • 94Bruno FerreiraG
  • 2WallisonD
  • 3AllysonD
  • 38Jefferson MacielD
  • 36DGD
  • 77Zé RicardoM
  • 8Luiz HenriqueM
  • 14Daniel PenhaM
  • 10Jean LucasM
  • 37RildoM
  • 19Caio Suassuna Gonçalves FerreiraF
Substitutes
  • 18HyanM
  • 1Igor BohnG
  • 23Gabriel CiprianoF
  • 9Léo GamalhoF
  • 70GasparF
  • 35PedrãoD
  • 25Paulo VitorM
  • 20Isaías PereiraF
  • 66QuaresmaD
Coach: Allan Aal
Botafogo SP 5-4-1
  • 1Victor SouzaG
  • 22Gabriel InocêncioD
  • 2JonathanD
  • 4VilarD
  • 27DarlanD
  • 6Patrick BreyD
  • 8Everton MorelliM
  • 5L. MacielM
  • 10Rafael GavaM
  • 30Zé HugoM
  • 9HygorF
Substitutes
  • 18Arthur CaíkeF
  • 16Matheus SalesM
  • 28Marco AntônioM
  • 12JordanG
  • 26Felipe VieiraD
  • 31Pedro HenriqueD
  • 23Wesley Pinheiro SantosF
  • 29Thiago HenriqueM
  • 7KelvinF
Coach: Cláudio Tencati

Form going into Avai vs Botafogo SP

Avai

Serie B

  • D0-0Athletic Club MG18 October 2026

Botafogo SP

Serie B

  • W1-0away to CRB18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Avai38127193747-1043
12Botafogo SP38149154541+451

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Avai vs Botafogo SP

  • 6 July 2026Botafogo SP 3–1 AvaiSerie B
  • 23 November 2025Botafogo SP 0–0 AvaiSerie B
  • 28 July 2025Avai 5–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
  • 19 November 2024Botafogo SP 1–3 AvaiSerie B
  • 31 July 2024Avai 1–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
  • 7 October 2023Botafogo SP 0–1 AvaiSerie B

Leading scorers: Avai and Botafogo SP

Avai

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.

Botafogo SP

GoalsAssists

  • Hygor110
  • Everton Morelli104

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Botafogo SP won 2–0 at Avai. The model had leaned towards a win for Avai at 41% and given a win for Botafogo SP 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Morelli 43' for Botafogo SP, Leandro Maciel 54' for Botafogo SP. On expected goals it finished 1.66–0.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Avai a 80.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 69.5% after a win, 89.5% after a draw, 93.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 93.3%, 12.6 points higher than before the match.

For Botafogo SP the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 3.5% going in: 0.0% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 6.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.