23 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli
Referee: Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta, Italy
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Empoli 0-2 Vicenza Virtus.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Empoli, 26% draw, 28% Vicenza Virtus — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Empoli at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Empoli0%Draw1%Vicenza Virtus99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽Nicola Rautiassist: Andrea Papetti
🔁Joseph Ceesayout: Steven Shpendi
50'
Marco Curto
55'
•Cristian Cauz
62'
69'
Riccardo Marchizza
🔁Edoardo Saporitiout: Filippo Di Stefano
69'
🔁Filippo Bandinelliout: Luca Belardinelli
69'
🔁Duccio Degli Innocentiout: Lapo Deli
70'
Lapo Deli
73'
74'
🔁Nicola Rautiout: Silvio Merkaj
74'
🔁Claudio Morraout: Filippo Alessio
78'
🔁Riccardo Marchizzaout: Thomas Sandon
80'
L. Caferri
🔁Luca Magninoout: Matteo Egan
82'
83'
🔁Mattia Valotiout: Loris Zonta
85'
⚽Giulio Pellizzariassist: Loris Zonta

Match stats — Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus

51%Possession49%
13Shots19
5On target3
4Corners4
0.57xG2.01

Goals against chances

Empoli0 from 0.57 xGless than the chances were worth
Vicenza Virtus2 from 2.01 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Empoli 3-5-2
  • 12J. SeghettiG
  • 8L. MagninoD
  • 25M. CurtoD
  • 33C. CauzD
  • 98K. ZedadkaM
  • 23F. BandinelliM
  • 5D. Degli InnocentiM
  • 10E. SaporitiM
  • 91N. CorradoM
  • 77B. PopovF
  • 15J. CeesayF
Substitutes
  • 11S. ShpendiF
  • 6S. RomagnoliD
  • 1S. PerisanG
  • 57L. BelardinelliM
  • 36D. BembnistaD
  • 39E. BiondiniM
  • 44L. DeliM
  • 20F. DistefanoF
  • 35M. EganD
Coach: M. Andreoletti
Vicenza Virtus 3-5-2
  • 16R. GagnoG
  • 66A. PapettiD
  • 23N. BrighentiD
  • 5R. MarchizzaD
  • 28L. CaferriM
  • 26G. PellizzariM
  • 8A. BellemoM
  • 10M. ValotiM
  • 21T. CorazzaM
  • 7N. RautiF
  • 9C. MorraF
Substitutes
  • 24Filippo AlessioF
  • 4M. CarraroM
  • 32F. CostaD
  • 6M. LeverbeD
  • 33S. MerkajF
  • 11G. MonciniF
  • 99A. PietrelliM
  • 27T. SandonD
  • 44R. TalaricoM
Coach: F. Gallo

Form going into Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus

Empoli

Serie B

  • D1-1away to Ascoli17 October 2026

Vicenza Virtus

Serie B

  • D2-2away to Benevento17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Empoli112361219-79
18Vicenza Virtus112361424-109

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus

  • 15 August 2021Empoli 4–2 VicenzaCoppa Italia
  • 13 March 2021Vicenza Virtus 0–2 EmpoliSerie B
  • 28 November 2020Empoli 2–2 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
  • 13 August 2016Empoli 2–0 Vicenza VirtusCoppa Italia

Leading scorers: Empoli and Vicenza Virtus

Empoli

GoalsAssists

  • E. Saporiti40

Vicenza Virtus

GoalsAssists

  • S. Merkaj31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vicenza Virtus won 2–0 at Empoli. The model had leaned towards a win for Empoli at 46% and given a win for Vicenza Virtus 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nicola Rauti 20' for Vicenza Virtus, Giulio Pellizzari 85' for Vicenza Virtus. Sent off: Marco Curto (Empoli) 55'. On expected goals it finished 0.57–2.01.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Empoli a 20.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.9% after a win, 21.7% after a draw, 25.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.4%, 5 points higher than before the match.

For Vicenza Virtus the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 33.1% going in: 25.3% after a win, 33.5% after a draw, 36.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.3%, 7.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Empoli v Vicenza Virtus has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Empoli's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Empoli win46%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Vicenza Virtus win28%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.