23 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Spaeri vs Gagra Erovnuli Liga prediction & result

Spaeri Stadium, Tbilisi
Referee: A. Aptsiauri
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Spaeri 0-0 Gagra.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Spaeri, 27% draw, 29% Gagra — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Spaeri at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Spaeri5%Draw92%Gagra3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

giga samcharadze
19'
Saba gegiadze
36'
40'
Guram Goshteliani
46'
🔁Givi khachidzeout: Viktor Bliznichenko
55'
🔁Guram Goshtelianiout: alexander feikrishvili
56'
augusto
nika chagunava
60'
🔁Billy Jibrilout: Revazi Injgia
60'
🔁Zurab Golubianiout: saba maisuradze
60'
64'
🔁gela sadghobelashviliout: Illia skrypnyk
64'
🔁davit mujiriout: Nikita Slavitski
73'
🔁pedro borgesout: Luka Gurchiani
🔁Saba gegiadzeout: d giorgi tsetskhladze
74'
nikoloz kentchadze
77'
🔁Lasha Kokhreidzeout: zakaria basilashvili
87'
🔁Gocha tsirdavaout: Temuri tsalughelashvili
87'

Match stats — Spaeri vs Gagra

54%Possession46%
12Shots8
6On target5
5Corners4

Line-ups

Spaeri 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. PutkaradzeG
  • 22N. ChagunavaD
  • 20N. KentchadzeD
  • 31G. BunturiD
  • 14G. SamkharadzeD
  • 10Tamaz TsetskhladzeM
  • 24Z. GolubianiM
  • 26B. JibrilF
  • 19G. TsirdavaF
  • 7S. GegiadzeD
  • 17L. KokhreidzeF
Substitutes
  • 30Z. BasilashviliF
  • 23N. ChomakhidzeG
  • 25R. InjgiaF
  • 8S. MaisuradzeD
  • 13S. MathenjwaD
  • 2giorgi pirtakhiaD
  • 5T. TsalughelashviliM
  • 9G. TsetskhladzeF
  • 3L. KachibaiaD
Coach: A. Kighuradze
Gagra 4-1-4-1
  • 1O. VorobeyG
  • 22G. SadghobelashviliD
  • 5Y. NazarovD
  • 2AugustoD
  • 40ClaudineiD
  • 6M. TsintsadzeM
  • 7P. BorgesD
  • 30G. GoshtelianiF
  • 25WandersonM
  • 19G. KhachidzeF
  • 9D. MujiriF
Substitutes
  • 23A. AndreychukF
  • 18V. BliznichenkoF
  • 3O. ChochiaD
  • 35Alexander TimchenkoG
  • 33L. GurchianiM
  • 21alexander feikrishviliM
  • 8I. SkrypnykM
  • 15Nikita SlavitskiF
  • 17Vinicius CesarD
Coach: V. Khachidze

Form going into Spaeri vs Gagra

Spaeri

Erovnuli Liga

  • L1-3away to Dinamo Tbilisi18 October 2026
  • D3-3Torpedo Kutaisi10 October 2026

Gagra

Erovnuli Liga

  • L1-3Dinamo Batumi17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Samgurali11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Spaeri32613134151-1031
9Gagra32613132846-1831

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spaeri vs Gagra

  • 17 August 2026Gagra 1–1 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
  • 11 May 2026Spaeri 3–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
  • 11 March 2026Gagra 0–3 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
  • 5 November 2024Spaeri 2–2 GagraDavid Kipiani Cup
  • 12 December 2022Spaeri 3–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
  • 8 December 2022Gagra 2–0 SpaeriErovnuli Liga

The result against the call

Spaeri and Gagra drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Spaeri at 44% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Spaeri a 97.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 96.2% after a win, 98.8% after a draw, 99.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 98.8%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

For Gagra the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 96.7% going in: 93.0% after a win, 97.4% after a draw, 99.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 97.4%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Spaeri v Gagra has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is Spaeri's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Spaeri win44%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Gagra win29%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.