24 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Orense SC vs Delfin SC Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala
Referee: Augusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista, Ecuador
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Orense SC 4-0 Delfin SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Orense SC, 27% draw, 28% Delfin SC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Orense SC at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Gonzalo Rostagnoassist: Valentín Burgoa
10'
21'
Ober Medina
⚽Jefferson Arce (OG)
40'
45+1'
Erick Zuniga
45'
🔁Emerson Leao Espinoza Tenorioout: Gerónimo Heredia
45'
🔁Jefferson Arceout: Kevin Ushina
Sixto Mina
49'
🔁Valentín Burgoaout: Bryan Elián Viñán Rodríguez
61'
🔁Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyesout: J. Valencia
61'
62'
Jonathan Morocho
Gonzalo Rostagno
63'
69'
🔁Jonathan Morochoout: Luis Armando Castro Garzón
69'
🔁Danny Lunaout: Lucas Dante Cornejo
🔁Gabriel Achilierout: B. Quiñonez
72'
⚽J. Valenciaassist: W. Herrera
78'
🔁Gonzalo Rostagnoout: Andrés Parrales
79'
🔁W. Herreraout: Erick Pluas
79'
⚽Andrés Parralesassist: Pedro Velasco
89'

Match stats — Orense SC vs Delfin SC

34%Possession66%
10Shots7
5On target1
3Corners5
0.66xG0.39

Goals against chances

Orense SC4 from 0.66 xGmore than the chances were worth
Delfin SC0 from 0.39 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Orense SC 3-4-3
  • 12R. SilvaG
  • 4M. QuiñonezD
  • 24G. AchilierD
  • 3Sixto Romario Mina ArroyoD
  • 31P. VelascoM
  • 21G. RostagnoM
  • 25R. JaramilloM
  • 15B. CaicedoM
  • 19Michael Alessandro Bermúdez ReyesF
  • 11A. HerreraF
  • 30V. BurgoaF
Substitutes
  • 57S. MairongoM
  • 13Á. MenaF
  • 26N. MolinaM
  • 6S. CallegariD
  • 22J. OrtizG
  • 51C. OrtízM
  • 77B. ViñánD
  • 10M. ParralesF
  • 14E. PluasM
Coach: J. Buch
Delfin SC 4-2-3-1
  • 21B. HerasG
  • 77B. HernándezD
  • 32A. BedoyaD
  • 5O. MedinaD
  • 14E. ZúñigaD
  • 70E. EspinozaM
  • 18J. MorochoM
  • 31Jefferson Stalin Arce MinaM
  • 10Danny Gabriel Luna MoránM
  • 50T. OzaetaM
  • 9F. AyuntaF
Substitutes
  • 39Edison Caicedo Peralta EberF
  • 16L. CastroM
  • 33A. CisnerosD
  • 23L. CornejoM
  • 22J. CárdenasG
  • 34G. HerediaD
  • 8K. MorenoM
  • 55M. ReyesD
  • 17E. RubioD
Coach: Juan Carlos León

Form going into Orense SC vs Delfin SC

Orense SC

Liga Pro

  • D1-1away to Mushuc Runa SC19 October 2026
  • D0-0Deportivo Cuenca11 October 2026

Delfin SC

Liga Pro

  • W4-2Manta FC18 October 2026
  • W3-2Mushuc Runa SC9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Orense SC36109174353-1039
14Delfin SC36108183143-1238

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Orense SC vs Delfin SC

  • 9 August 2026Delfin SC 1–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
  • 19 April 2026Orense SC 0–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
  • 26 August 2025Orense SC 3–1 Delfin SCLiga Pro
  • 4 May 2025Delfin SC 0–0 Orense SCLiga Pro
  • 1 November 2024Orense SC 0–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Orense SC and Delfin SC

Orense SC

GoalsAssists

  • A. Herrera123

Delfin SC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Ayunta111

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Orense SC beat Delfin SC 4–0. The model had made a win for Orense SC its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Gonzalo Rostagno 10' for Orense SC, Jefferson Arce (own goal) 40' for Orense SC, J. Valencia 78' for Orense SC, Andrés Parrales 89' for Orense SC. On expected goals it finished 0.66–0.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orense SC a 7.1% chance to win the league: 10.3% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, 2.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.3%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For Delfin SC the question was the chance to win the league, 4.0% going in: 7.8% after a win, 2.9% after a draw, 2.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.1%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Pro season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Orense SC v Delfin SC has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Orense SC's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Orense SC win45%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Delfin SC win28%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.