LDU de Quito vs Macara Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: LDU de Quito 1-2 Macara.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% LDU de Quito, 29% draw, 30% Macara — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
LDU de Quito at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — LDU de Quito vs Macara
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. ValleG
- 4Ricardo AdeD
- 30G. AllalaD
- 67J. CarabalíD
- 57M. WeigandtM
- 20F. CornejoM
- 8J. PretellM
- 23Yerlin QuinonezM
- 10Alexander Antonio Alvarado CarrielM
- 77K. VelascoF
- 16DeyversonF
- 3Richard Alexander Mina CaicedoD
- 28J. CueroD
- 22Alexander Domínguez CarabalíG
- 11M. EstradaF
- 5Sebastían González BaqueroM
- 26I. ZambranoM
- 99C. TobarM
- 44L. SegoviaD
- 7L. RodríguezM
- 1R. RodriguezG
- 25J. BolañosD
- 4J. JiménezD
- 14J. MarrufoD
- 27J. MohorD
- 5J. EstacioM
- 16J. CazaresM
- 28A. CampanaM
- 15M. TelloM
- 20M. VieraM
- 9F. PosseF
- 12D. CueroG
- 10M. MirandaM
- 26M. MedrandaD
- 87J. KlingerF
- 22L. FerroF
- 21S. EtchebarneD
- 11Tono EspinozaM
- 3Juan EspinozaD
- 52B. CoelloM
Form going into LDU de Quito vs Macara
LDU de Quito
Liga Pro
- D1-1away to Aucas17 October 2026
- W2-1Barcelona SC11 October 2026
Macara
Liga Pro
- W1-0Independiente del Valle17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Universidad Catolica Quito11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 32 | +6 | 54 |
| 2 | Macara | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 37 | +15 | 67 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: LDU de Quito vs Macara
- 5 July 2026Macara 1–0 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 1 March 2026LDU de Quito 0–2 MacaraLiga Pro
- 30 August 2025LDU de Quito 1–1 MacaraLiga Pro
- 10 May 2025Macara 0–1 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 4 August 2024Macara 0–4 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 5 March 2024LDU de Quito 2–1 MacaraLiga Pro
Leading scorers: LDU de Quito and Macara
LDU de Quito
GoalsAssists
- M. Estrada72
Macara
GoalsAssists
- F. Posse175
- A. Campana123
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Macara won 2–1 at LDU de Quito. The model had leaned towards a win for LDU de Quito at 41% and given a win for Macara 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Franco Posse 45+1' for Macara, Jesús Pretell 74' for LDU de Quito, M. Viera 75' for Macara. On expected goals it finished 1.43–1.06.
How the call on LDU de Quito v Macara has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is LDU de Quito's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- LDU de Quito win41%▼ −2
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Macara win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.