Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Emelec 0-1 Guayaquil City FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Emelec, 26% draw, 29% Guayaquil City FC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Emelec at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12P. OrtízG
- 80O. HerreraD
- 27F. LeónD
- 2A. LeguizamónD
- 3I. GuerricoD
- 10F. PizziniM
- 5A. MinaM
- 32J. ValverdeM
- 19J. RuízM
- 59Reixon SayaF
- 9R. CarrilloF
- 21J. CevallosM
- 11S. ArceM
- 15Luis FragozoF
- 6V. GriffithM
- 13Luis Fernando Gómez AnguloD
- 7L. KlimowiczF
- 30Madison Ariel Mina IbarraD
- 8G. NápoliM
- 16S. QuinteroM
- 1G. NapaG
- 33R. CaicedoD
- 3Y. RodríguezD
- 4E. LadinesD
- 6R. AriasD
- 17J. AyoviM
- 14D. ArroyoM
- 70P. MancillaM
- 80P. GonzálezM
- 21D. DorregarayF
- 11E. MeroF
- 15K. SamboninoM
- 29J. QuiñónezD
- 30J. PinosG
- 12Rodrigo Ramiro Perea SalazarG
- 9M. PalmaF
- 16J. OrdóñezM
- 19A. NaulaM
- 20S. LaurinoM
- 7J. CaicedoF
Form going into Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC
Emelec
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Leones del Norte18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Guayaquil City FC10 October 2026
Guayaquil City FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Libertad17 October 2026
- W3-2Emelec10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC
- 10 October 2026Guayaquil City FC 3–2 EmelecLiga Pro
- 10 August 2026Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecLiga Pro
- 18 April 2026Emelec 1–3 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 22 October 2025Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecCopa Ecuador
- 4 November 2023Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecLiga Pro
- 30 May 2023Emelec 0–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Emelec and Guayaquil City FC
Emelec
GoalsAssists
- R. Carrillo133
- L. Klimowicz62
Guayaquil City FC
GoalsAssists
- E. Mero135
- D. Dorregaray92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Guayaquil City FC won 1–0 at Emelec. The model had leaned towards a win for Emelec at 45% and given a win for Guayaquil City FC 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Diego Dorregaray 45+2' for Guayaquil City FC. On expected goals it finished 2.62–1.30.
How the call on Emelec v Guayaquil City FC has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 26% / 29%: the biggest move is Emelec's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Emelec win45%▲ +6
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Guayaquil City FC win29%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.