25 October 2026, 21:30 UTC

Aucas vs Barcelona SC Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
Referee: Alex Fabricio Cajas Torres
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Aucas 0-4 Barcelona SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Aucas, 30% draw, 34% Barcelona SC — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aucas at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aucas0%Draw1%Barcelona SC99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Darío Benedettoassist: Byron Castillo
23'
Exon Gustavo Vallecilla
29'
Byron Castillo
29'
Bryan Carabali
38'
•Exon Gustavo Vallecilla
Robiño Quiñónez
40'
🔁Mateo Burdissoout: Luis Gustavino
45'
59'
🔁Johan Garciaout: Jefferson Intriago
59'
🔁Byron Castilloout: Luis Cano
🔁Byron Yardel Carabalí Delgadoout: Cristhoper Zambrano
60'
🔁Luis Arroyoout: Michael Carcelen
60'
68'
🔁Sergio Díazout: Damián Díaz
68'
🔁Darío Benedettoout: Tomás Rodríguez
🔁Andres Menaout: Rafael Monti Azpiazú
70'
Robiño Quiñónez
70'
75'
🔁Jefferson Wilaout: Erick Mendoza
🔁Piero Andrés Guzmán Arroboout: Maverick Vera
78'
82'
⚽Luis Cano
Maverick Vera
86'
90+4'
Matias Gonzalo Lugo
90+5'
⚽Damián Díaz
90+8'
⚽Luis Cano

Match stats — Aucas vs Barcelona SC

64%Possession36%
16Shots8
3On target6
8Corners4
0.77xG1.03

Goals against chances

Aucas0 from 0.77 xGless than the chances were worth
Barcelona SC4 from 1.03 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aucas 4-1-4-1
  • 13Hamilton Emanuel Piedra OrdóñezG
  • 37A. ZovaD
  • 4M. BurdissoD
  • 2S. MoralesD
  • 31B. CarabalíD
  • 6A. SpinaM
  • 10A. PreciadoM
  • 21P. GuzmánM
  • 18Andrés David Mena MontenegroM
  • 28R. QuiñónezM
  • 29Luis Aldair Arroyo CabezaF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ChavesG
  • 34M. CarcelénM
  • 7J. AndradeF
  • 20D. EspinosaF
  • 16L. GustavinoD
  • 9R. Monti AzpiazuF
  • 5ThiagoM
  • 57M. VeraF
  • 17C. ZambranoF
Coach: N. Araujo
Barcelona SC 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ContrerasG
  • 18B. CarabalíD
  • 33J. BáezD
  • 4G. VallecillaD
  • 27W. VargasD
  • 32M. LugoM
  • 50J. GarcíaM
  • 26B. CastilloM
  • 8S. DíazM
  • 51Jefferson WilaM
  • 9D. BenedettoF
Substitutes
  • 80Jandry GomezM
  • 10D. DíazM
  • 16L. CanoF
  • 13José Luis AnguloG
  • 35J. IntriagoM
  • 23T. MartínezM
  • 21H. VillalbaF
  • 11T. RodríguezF
  • 14A. RangelD
Coach: Pablo Trobbiani

Form going into Aucas vs Barcelona SC

Aucas

Liga Pro

  • D1-1LDU de Quito17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Independiente del Valle10 October 2026

Barcelona SC

Liga Pro

  • D1-1Universidad Catolica Quito18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to LDU de Quito11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Aucas36159124042-254
6Barcelona SC351213103932+749

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aucas vs Barcelona SC

  • 7 September 2026Aucas 1–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
  • 17 May 2026Barcelona SC 3–0 AucasLiga Pro
  • 14 February 2026Barcelona SC 1–0 AucasFriendlies Clubs
  • 28 September 2025Barcelona SC 1–1 AucasLiga Pro
  • 1 June 2025Aucas 2–0 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
  • 2 November 2024Aucas 1–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Aucas and Barcelona SC

Aucas

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.

Barcelona SC

GoalsAssists

  • D. Benedetto92

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Barcelona SC won 4–0 at Aucas. The model had leaned towards a win for Aucas at 36% and given a win for Barcelona SC 34%. The goals: Darío Benedetto 8' for Barcelona SC, Luis Cano 82' for Barcelona SC, Damián Díaz 90+5' for Barcelona SC, Luis Cano 90+8' for Barcelona SC. Sent off: Robiño Quiñónez (Aucas) 70'. On expected goals it finished 0.77–1.03.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.