12 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result

Arena Condá, Chapeco
Referee: Wilton Sampaio
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Chapecoense 1-4 Atletico Paranaense.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Chapecoense, 25% draw, 47% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Paranaense at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chapecoense0%Draw1%Atletico Paranaense99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Leonardo Caetano Silvaassist: Gilberto
29'
⚽Luiz Gustavo
31'
⚽Kevin Viverosassist: Gilberto
Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior
40'
João Paulo
45'
🔁Marcio Antonio de Sousa Juniorout: Yannick Bolasie
45'
🔁Luis Eduardo Marques dos Santosout: Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski
45'
45'
🔁Lucas Esquivelout: Claudinho
45'
🔁Arthur Diasout: Leonardo Pinheiro da Conceição
45'
🔁Leonardo Caetano Silvaout: Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio
70'
Gilberto
🔁Yago Felipeout: David Antunes da Silva
70'
🔁Giovanni Augustoout: Rodrigo
71'
⚽Maurício Garcezassist: Yannick Bolasie
72'
78'
⚽Kevin Viverosassist: Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio
🔁Kauan Fariaout: Rafael Thyere
84'
84'
🔁Gilbertoout: Antonio Feliphe Costa Silva
89'
🔁Luiz Gustavoout: Juan Portilla

Match stats — Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense

46%Possession54%
21Shots11
7On target8
6Corners7
1.75xG1.39

Goals against chances

Chapecoense1 from 1.75 xGless than the chances were worth
Atletico Paranaense4 from 1.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chapecoense 4-2-3-1
  • 98AndersonG
  • 23DuduD
  • 21Kauan Faria GomesD
  • 4João PauloD
  • 91Bruno PachecoD
  • 88Yago FelipeM
  • 16Bruno MatiasM
  • 7MarcinhoM
  • 10Giovanni AugustoM
  • 31GarcezM
  • 9Tulio Eduardo Silva De OliveiraF
Substitutes
  • 20Bruno TubarãoF
  • 11Y. BolasieF
  • 80Miguel CarvalhoM
  • 19David AntunesM
  • 3DomaD
  • 6ManchaD
  • 15Rafael ThyereD
  • 39RodrigoF
  • 14Gabriel WernerG
Coach: Rafael Lacerda
Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
  • 1MycaelG
  • 4Arthur DiasD
  • 33J. AguirreD
  • 37L. EsquivelD
  • 12GilbertoM
  • 16JádsonM
  • 14Luiz GustavoM
  • 7S. MendozaM
  • 21LeozinhoM
  • 8João CruzM
  • 9K. ViverosF
Substitutes
  • 47ChiquetiM
  • 10B. ZapelliM
  • 23SantosG
  • 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo PintoF
  • 70RenanF
  • 27J. PortillaM
  • 3LéoD
  • 2GilbertoD
  • 5FelipinhoD
Coach: Odair Hellmann

Form going into Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense

Chapecoense

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4away to Vitoria7 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro19 September 2026
  • L1-2Internacional12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Gremio30 August 2026

Atletico Paranaense

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Atletico Mineiro8 October 2026
  • W2-1Bahia20 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Coritiba12 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
  • D3-3Fluminense30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Paranaense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Paranaense had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Chapecoense3449213370-3721
5Atletico Paranaense34159105143+854

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense

  • 12 April 2026Atletico Paranaense 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 17 September 2025Chapecoense 2–3 Atletico ParanaenseSerie B
  • 9 May 2025Atletico Paranaense 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie B
  • 13 October 2021Chapecoense 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 27 June 2021Atletico Paranaense 2–2 ChapecoenseSerie A

The full Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense record →

Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Atletico Paranaense

Chapecoense

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Atletico Paranaense

GoalsAssists

  • K. Viveros213

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Paranaense won 4–1 at Chapecoense. The model had made a win for Atletico Paranaense its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Leonardo Caetano Silva 6' for Atletico Paranaense, Luiz Gustavo 29' for Atletico Paranaense, Kevin Viveros 31' for Atletico Paranaense, Maurício Garcez 72' for Chapecoense, Kevin Viveros 78' for Atletico Paranaense. On expected goals it finished 1.75–1.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Paranaense a 57.8% chance to finish in the top four: 67.6% after a win, 52.2% after a draw, 43.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.6%, 9.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Chapecoense v Atletico Paranaense has moved

First published on 28 Sep at 30% / 28% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 28% / 25% / 47%: the biggest move is Atletico Paranaense's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Chapecoense win28%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Atletico Paranaense win47%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.