FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: FC Cincinnati 2-1 New York City FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% FC Cincinnati, 19% draw, 34% New York City FC — fair odds of 2.13, 5.26 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Cincinnati at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18Roman CelentanoG
- 12Miles RobinsonD
- 21Matt MiazgaD
- 24Kyle SmithD
- 20Pavel BuchaM
- 17Kenji Mboma DemM
- 5Obinna NwobodoM
- 22Gerardo ValenzuelaM
- 66Ender EcheniqueM
- 9Kévin DenkeyF
- 10EvanderF
- 15Teenage HadebeD
- 29Bryan RamirezD
- 11Samuel GidiM
- 16Tom BarlowF
- 27Tah AnungaM
- 13Evan LouroG
- 4Nick HagglundD
- 2Alvas PowellD
- 99Ayoub JabbariF
- 49Matthew FreeseG
- 24Tayvon GrayD
- 6James SandsD
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 22Kevin O'TooleD
- 55Keaton ParksM
- 8Andrés PereaM
- 26Agustin OjedaM
- 7Nicolás FernándezM
- 9Bénie TraoréM
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 99Seymour Garfield-ReidF
- 88Malachi JonesF
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 32Jonathan ShoreM
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 30Tomás RomeroG
- 23Max MurrayD
- 35Mitja IleničD
- 15Kevin PierreM
Form going into FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
- D1-1away to Orlando City SC15 August 2026
- W4-2San Jose Earthquakes1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew25 July 2026
- W4-3Vancouver Whitecaps22 July 2026
New York City FC
- L2-3Philadelphia Union16 August 2026
- D1-1Toronto FC31 July 2026
- W3-1Chicago Fire25 July 2026
- W2-1away to Columbus Crew22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC
- 19 August 2026FC Cincinnati 2–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 22 April 2026New York City FC 4–4 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 23 August 2025FC Cincinnati 0–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 4 May 2025New York City FC 1–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 9 November 2024FC Cincinnati 0–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 November 2024New York City FC 3–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
- K. Denkey13 goals2 assists
- Evander12 goals8 assists
New York City FC
- N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.