1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Oțelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe Liga I prediction & result

Stadionul Otelul, Galati
Referee: Florin Andrei, Romania
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Oțelul 1-1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Oțelul, 28% draw, 21% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Oțelul at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Oțelul0%Draw5%Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. Silva
14'
33'
🔁B. Vatajeluout: F. Vianna
N. Pedro
36'
61'
N. I. Paun
68'
⚽D. Oberlinassist: F. Vianna
🔁D. Bordunout: A. Balanica
74'
🔁M. Silvaout: Ze Turbo
74'
78'
🔁N. I. Paunout: A. Keita
78'
🔁B. Cmiljanicout: M. Mawa
🔁A. Ciobanuout: Andrezinho
79'
🔁H. Syllaout: Kazu
84'
89'
🔁R. Silaghiout: V. Daguin
90'
🔁D. Oberlinout: N. Heras
⚽N. Pedro (pen)
90+5'

Match stats — Oțelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

54%Possession46%
21Shots7
4On target3
8Corners3

Line-ups

Oțelul 3-4-3
  • 1Cosmin Dur-BozoancăG
  • 44Dominick ZatorD
  • 3Giannis ChristopoulosD
  • 6Paul IacobD
  • 5Habib SyllaM
  • 17Andrei CiobanuM
  • 8Rafael BritoM
  • 28Miguel SilvaM
  • 24Denis BordunF
  • 9Patrick FernandesF
  • 27Pedro NunoF
Substitutes
  • 11Zé TurboF
  • 77Alexandru BălănicăF
  • 10AndrézinhoF
  • 88KazuD
  • 13Mario ContraG
  • 12Darius PaharnicuG
  • 39Teodor LunguM
  • 30Matei FrunzăM
  • 18Dragoș AfteneM
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 4-4-2
  • 91David LazarG
  • 2Gustavo CascardoD
  • 82Daniel VîrtejD
  • 4Setigui KaramokoD
  • 5Bogdan VătăjeluD
  • 17Doru AndreiM
  • 27Raul CîmpeanM
  • 7Robert SilaghiM
  • 6Nicolae PăunM
  • 9Boris CmiljanićF
  • 11Dimitri OberlinF
Substitutes
  • 3Fábio ViannaD
  • 8Aboubakar KeitaM
  • 14Moses MawaF
  • 28Victor DaguinM
  • 20Nacho HerasF
  • 33Szilárd GyengeG
  • 25Bogdan OtelițăD
  • 21Alin DobrosavleviciD
  • 19Giovani GhimfușM

Form going into Oțelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Oțelul

Liga I

  • L3-4away to Farul Constanta25 October 2026
  • D1-1Csikszereda16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FCSB10 October 2026

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Liga I

  • L0-5Universitatea Craiova26 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Petrolul Ploiesti17 October 2026
  • L0-2Dinamo Bucuresti9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Oțelul152761723-613
11Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe154651120-918

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

  • 25 April 2025Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–3 OțelulLiga I
  • 26 January 2025Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2–0 OțelulLiga I
  • 17 December 2024Oțelul 0–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheCupa României
  • 30 August 2024Oțelul 2–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
  • 12 December 2023Oțelul 2–3 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
  • 7 August 2023Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 OțelulLiga I

Leading scorers: Oțelul and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Oțelul

GoalsAssists

  • Patrick40

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Oțelul and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Oțelul at 51% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: D. Oberlin 68' for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, N. Pedro (penalty) 90+5' for Oțelul.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Oțelul these chances to finish in the bottom three: 17.8% after a win, 26.8% after a draw, 36.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 26.8%.

For Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 39.2% going in: 23.5% after a win, 35.0% after a draw, 44.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 35.0%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Oțelul v Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 45% / 31% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 51% / 28% / 21%: the biggest move is Oțelul's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Oțelul win51%▲ +6
  2. Draw28%▼ −3
  3. Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win21%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.