Oțelul vs Universitatea Craiova Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Oțelul 1-1 Universitatea Craiova.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Oțelul, 20% draw, 26% Universitatea Craiova — fair odds of 1.85, 5.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oțelul at 54% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Oțelul vs Universitatea Craiova
Line-ups
- 1Cosmin Dur-BozoancăG
- 5Habib SyllaD
- 3Giannis ChristopoulosD
- 6Paul IacobD
- 28Miguel SilvaD
- 17Andrei CiobanuM
- 8João LameiraM
- 27Pedro NunoM
- 30Matei FrunzăF
- 9Patrick FernandesF
- 10AndrézinhoF
- 7João PaulinoF
- 39Teodor LunguM
- 24Denis BordunM
- 13Mario ContraG
- 12Darius PaharnicuG
- 2Milen ZhelevD
- 16Dan NeicuD
- 20Robert OlteanuM
- 18Dragoș AfteneM
- 90Răzvan SavaG
- 4Alexandru CrețuD
- 24Nikola StevanovićD
- 6Vladimir ScreciuD
- 17Carlos MoraM
- 5Anzor MekvabishviliM
- 8Tudor BăluțăM
- 23Samuel TelesM
- 12Monday EtimF
- 9Assad Al-HamlawiF
- 29Luca BăsceanuF
- 11Nicușor BancuD
- 3Oleksandr RomanchukD
- 30David MateiM
- 10Ștefan BaiaramM
- 7Steven NsimbaF
- 21Laurenţiu PopescuG
- 1Alexandru MaximG
- 28Adrian RusD
- 20Alexandru CicâldăuM
Form going into Oțelul vs Universitatea Craiova
Oțelul
- L0-1away to Petrolul Ploiesti7 August 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Bucuresti31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Uta Arad24 July 2026
- W2-1CFR 1907 Cluj18 July 2026
Universitatea Craiova
- W2-1KuPS13 August 2026
- L0-1Arges Pitesti9 August 2026
- D1-1away to KuPS6 August 2026
- W4-0Petrolul Ploiesti1 August 2026
- D2-2Levski Sofia29 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Oțelul | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Universitatea Craiova
- 16 August 2026Oțelul 1–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 5 February 2026Universitatea Craiova 1–0 OțelulLiga I
- 20 September 2025Oțelul 1–0 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 14 February 2025Universitatea Craiova 2–1 OțelulLiga I
- 11 January 2025Universitatea Craiova 1–2 OțelulFriendlies Clubs
- 5 October 2024Oțelul 1–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
Leading scorers: Oțelul and Universitatea Craiova
Oțelul
- Patrick4 goals
Universitatea Craiova
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.