16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Eibar vs Tenerife Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Eibar 1-3 Tenerife.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Eibar, 18% draw, 50% Tenerife — fair odds of 3.13, 5.56 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Tenerife at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Eibar0%Draw1%Tenerife99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Enricassist: N. Gil
⚽J. Bautistaassist: J. Magunazelaia Argoitia
35'
44'
⚽J. Alvarez
56'
🔁N. Lopezout: I. Chapela
🔁J. Magunazelaia Argoitiaout: A. Garrido
61'
🔁Pejinoout: E. Perez
61'
61'
🔁Enricout: M. Pecar
61'
🔁Juanjoout: Fabricio
🔁A. Madariagaout: I. Gil
71'
71'
🔁N. Gilout: A. Krdzalic
71'
🔁V. Morenoout: B. Diocou
74'
⚽I. Chapelaassist: A. Krdzalic
🔁J. Bernatout: Javier Marton
81'
🔁A. Aresout: J. Guruzeta
81'
89'
Jesús Álvarez

Match stats — Eibar vs Tenerife

65%Possession35%
16Shots7
5On target4
7Corners3
1.64xG0.67

Goals against chances

Eibar1 from 1.64 xGless than the chances were worth
Tenerife3 from 0.67 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Eibar 4-2-3-1
  • 13J. MagunagoitiaG
  • 2S. CuberoD
  • 18M. AranaD
  • 23A. ArbillaD
  • 24J. BernatD
  • 6S. AlvarezM
  • 8A. MadariagaM
  • 17PejinoM
  • 11J. Magunazelaia ArgoitiaM
  • 7A. AresM
  • 9J. BautistaF
Substitutes
  • 1L. LopezG
  • 22A. RodriguezD
  • 4U. ElgezabalD
  • 15JairD
  • 21I. GilM
  • 30A. GarridoM
  • 28L. NunezM
  • 20Javier MartonF
  • 32C. Lumbreras
Coach: Jokin Aranbarri
Tenerife 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. MartinG
  • 5J. MorenoD
  • 27N. ViereckD
  • 4J. LeonD
  • 2D. RodriguezD
  • 6Juanjo
  • 16J. AlvarezM
  • 11N. LopezM
  • 10N. GilM
  • 8V. MorenoM
  • 18EnricF
Substitutes
  • 40G. Lozano de Vuyst
  • 19C. AlvarezD
  • 20M. PittonM
  • 7M. PecarM
  • 23A. Krdzalic
  • 15FabricioM
  • 29D. FernandezM
  • 24I. ChapelaF
  • 22G. RanosF
Coach: Alvaro Cervera

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Eibar5401103+712
4Tenerife531173+410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Eibar vs Tenerife

  • 16 August 2026Eibar 1–3 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 27 April 2025Tenerife 1–1 EibarSegunda División
  • 14 September 2024Eibar 1–0 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 7 April 2024Tenerife 2–1 EibarSegunda División
  • 30 September 2023Eibar 3–0 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 4 March 2023Tenerife 0–1 EibarSegunda División

Leading scorers: Eibar and Tenerife

Eibar

  • Jon Guruzeta3 goals1 assists
  • Malcom Adu2 goals1 assists
  • Iván Gil1 goals1 assists

Tenerife

  • Enric Gallego4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.