16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Burgos vs Cordoba Segunda División prediction & result

Burgos
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Burgos 3-2 Cordoba.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Burgos, 27% draw, 24% Cordoba — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Burgos at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Burgos4%Draw93%Cordoba3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Y. Diarraassist: C. Carracedo
22'
Rubén
⚽A. Foresassist: Curro
24'
Kevin Appin
29'
35'
Youssouf Diarra
⚽J. Llabres
37'
45'
⚽E. Garciaassist: J. Gutierrez
🔁J. Llabresout: V. Mollejo
67'
74'
🔁V. Sanchezout: Percan
74'
🔁E. Rodriguezout: K. Medina
76'
Eder Garcia
🔁K. Appinout: P. Galdames
77'
🔁J. Grageraout: M. Exposito
77'
🔁A. Foresout: S. Lencina
77'
77'
🔁E. Garciaout: A. Ghailan
84'
🔁E. Munozout: C. Albarran
84'
🔁J. Gutierrezout: Alex Martin
•David González
90+1'
🔁Curroout: M. Mejia
90+4'
⚽D. Gonzalez Ballesterosassist: V. Mollejo
90'

Match stats — Burgos vs Cordoba

41%Possession59%
13Shots20
5On target8
1Corners7
1.64xG2.3

Goals against chances

Burgos3 from 1.64 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cordoba2 from 2.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Burgos 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. CanteroG
  • 23A. Dadie IzagirreD
  • 6S. GonzalezD
  • 8G. SierraD
  • 3I. VilarrasaD
  • 20J. GrageraM
  • 10K. AppinM
  • 14D. Gonzalez BallesterosM
  • 16CurroM
  • 19J. LlabresM
  • 9A. ForesF
Substitutes
  • 35D. GonzalezG
  • 22B. MartinezD
  • 36I. MartinezD
  • 18S. del CerroM
  • 4P. GaldamesM
  • 5M. ExpositoM
  • 17M. CanteroM
  • 24S. LencinaM
  • 11V. MollejoF
Coach: Sergio Francisco
Cordoba 4-3-3
  • 1I. AlvarezG
  • 27E. Munoz
  • 5J. GutierrezD
  • 16R. AlvesD
  • 3D. TasendeD
  • 22Y. DiarraM
  • 8I. RuizM
  • 28E. GarciaM
  • 23C. CarracedoF
  • 15V. SanchezF
  • 18E. RodriguezF
Substitutes
  • 13Guilherme FernandesG
  • 21C. AlbarranD
  • 4Alex MartinD
  • 32Alex Lopez
  • 7T. ZidaneM
  • 6D. CaceresM
  • 9PercanF
  • 19I. Sanz
  • 11D. BriD
Coach: Ivan Ania

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Burgos522186+28
20Cordoba5104712-53

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Burgos vs Cordoba

  • 16 August 2026Burgos 3–2 CordobaSegunda División
  • 22 March 2026Burgos 4–0 CordobaSegunda División
  • 3 January 2026Cordoba 2–0 BurgosSegunda División
  • 10 May 2025Burgos 3–2 CordobaSegunda División
  • 26 August 2024Cordoba 2–2 BurgosSegunda División

Leading scorers: Burgos and Cordoba

Burgos

  • Álex Forés2 goals

Cordoba

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.