20 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad Pro League prediction & result

Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium
Referee: M. Al Hoaish
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Al-Ettifaq 1-4 Al-Ittihad.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Al-Ettifaq, 26% draw, 39% Al-Ittihad — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Ittihad at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Ettifaq0%Draw1%Al-Ittihad99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽George Ilenikhenaassist: Richard Ríos Montoya
⚽Sultan Ali Huranassist: Radhi Al Oteibi
34'
🔁Radhi Al Oteibiout: Madallah Al-Olayan
42'
45+2'
George Ilenikhena
Abdullah Al-Khateeb
45+2'
Abdoulaye Kanté
45+6'
🔁Sultan Ali Huranout: Bersant Celina
45'
53'
⚽Houssem Aouarassist: George Ilenikhena
🔁Meshal Al-Aeliout: Khalid Al-Ghannam
55'
🔁Matija Gluscevicout: Moussa Dembélé
55'
64'
🔁Saad Al-Mousaout: Ahmed Al-Ghamdi
73'
🔁George Ilenikhenaout: Youssef En-Nesyri
73'
🔁Steven Bergwijnout: Marwan Al-Sahafi
🔁Yasir Al-Shammariout: Abdalellah Hawsawi
76'
80'
⚽Youssef En-Nesyriassist: Muhannad Al-Shanqeeti
85'
⚽Youssef En-Nesyriassist: Ahmed Al-Ghamdi
88'
🔁Houssem Aouarout: Saleh Al-Shehri
88'
🔁Georginio Wijnaldumout: Muath Faquihi

Match stats — Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad

43%Possession57%
9Shots19
4On target8
2Corners7
1.57xG3

Goals against chances

Al-Ettifaq1 from 1.57 xGless than the chances were worth
Al-Ittihad4 from 3.00 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Ettifaq 5-3-2
  • 1M. RodákG
  • 61Radhi Al OtaibiD
  • 70Abdullah KhateebD
  • 5Pedro HenriqueD
  • 4J. HendryD
  • 13Meshal Al AlaeliD
  • 58Yasir ShammariM
  • 42A. KantéM
  • 11O. DudaM
  • 71M. GluščevićF
  • 99Sultan Ali HuranF
Substitutes
  • 29Z. Al GhamdiF
  • 7Khalid Al GhannamF
  • 33Madallah Al OlayanD
  • 92Turki Ba Al JawshG
  • 43B. CelinaM
  • 9M. DembéléF
  • 77AbdulelahM
  • 3Abdullah MaduD
  • 78Marzouq TambaktiD
Coach: Arthur Papas
Al-Ittihad 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. RajkovićG
  • 13Muhannad Al ShanqitiD
  • 6Saad Al MosaD
  • 2Danilo PereiraD
  • 25F. AbdiD
  • 5R. RiosM
  • 8Mukhtar AliM
  • 23G. WijnaldumM
  • 10H. AouarM
  • 34S. BergwijnM
  • 9G. IlenikhenaF
Substitutes
  • 32Ahmed Al JulaydanD
  • 27Ahmed Al GhamdiF
  • 50Mohammed Al AbsiG
  • 22Marwan Al SahafiF
  • 11Saleh Al ShehriF
  • 66Mohammed BarnawiD
  • 21Y. En-NesyriF
  • 42Muath FaqeehiD
  • 60Rakan KaabiM
Coach: Jens Wissing

Form going into Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad

Al-Ettifaq

Pro League

  • W1-0away to NEOM17 October 2026
  • D1-1Al Khaleej Saihat10 October 2026

Al-Ittihad

Pro League

  • L2-3away to Al-Hilal10 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC11 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Al-Ettifaq125431817+119
4Al-Ittihad117312111+1024

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad

  • 14 May 2026Al-Ettifaq 1–3 Al-IttihadPro League
  • 16 January 2026Al-Ittihad 0–1 Al-EttifaqPro League
  • 21 April 2025Al-Ittihad 3–2 Al-EttifaqPro League
  • 30 November 2024Al-Ettifaq 0–4 Al-IttihadPro League
  • 10 May 2024Al-Ittihad 0–5 Al-EttifaqPro League
  • 24 November 2023Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al-IttihadPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad

Al-Ettifaq

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Al-Ittihad

GoalsAssists

  • Y. En-Nesyri70
  • G. Ilenikhena63
  • S. Bergwijn51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Ittihad won 4–1 at Al-Ettifaq. The model had made a win for Al-Ittihad its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: George Ilenikhena 16' for Al-Ittihad, Sultan Ali Huran 34' for Al-Ettifaq, Houssem Aouar 53' for Al-Ittihad, Youssef En-Nesyri 80' for Al-Ittihad, Youssef En-Nesyri 85' for Al-Ittihad. On expected goals it finished 1.57–3.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Ettifaq a 4.7% chance to finish in the top four: 6.3% after a win, 3.9% after a draw, 3.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.2%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.

For Al-Ittihad the question was the chance to finish in the top four: 30.0% after a win, 22.6% after a draw, 19.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 30.0%.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.