6 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Red Bull Salzburg vs Pafos UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 Pafos.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Red Bull Salzburg, 21% draw, 24% Pafos — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Red Bull Salzburg at 55% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Red Bull Salzburg96%Draw4%Pafos0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

36'
David Luiz
43'
🔁D. Quinaout: K. Sema
46'
Ken Sema
🔁S. Diabateout: B. Mazurek
58'
🔁D. Redzicout: S. Kitano
64'
🔁Y. Vertessenout: K. Konate
65'
🔁E. Baidooout: H. Tabakovic
70'
🔁G. Diakiteout: E. Aguilar
70'
Abubakr Barry
75'
80'
🔁A. Britoout: M. Mammadov
82'
Ivan Šunjić
88'
🔁V. Dragomirout: Pepe
⚽H. Tabakovic
88'
90+3'
Ken Sema
90+3'
Ken Sema

Match stats — Red Bull Salzburg vs Pafos

59%Possession41%
3On target1
13Corners0

Line-ups

Red Bull Salzburg 4-2-3-1
  • 52C. ZawieschitzkyG
  • 18N. VeratschnigD
  • 44K. BomaD
  • 47V. ZabranskyD
  • 31D. SchmidD
  • 5S. DiabateM
  • 32A. BarryM
  • 20E. BaidooF
  • 30G. DiakiteF
  • 23D. RedzicM
  • 11Y. VertessenF
Substitutes
  • 41N. SarcevicG
  • 14M. KjaergaardM
  • 21T. DrexlerD
  • 39L. MorgallaD
  • 9H. TabakovicF
  • 19K. KonateF
  • 13F. KratzigD
  • 8S. KitanoM
  • 43E. AguilarF
Coach: Danny Rohl
Pafos 3-5-2
  • 99R. MajeckiG
  • 5D. GoldarD
  • 4David LuizD
  • 14N. IoannouD
  • 8D. QuinaM
  • 50A. BritoM
  • 26I. SunjicM
  • 6GugaM
  • 20BielF
  • 18LeleF
  • 30V. DragomirM
Substitutes
  • 71M. PapastylianouG
  • 82P. PetrouG
  • 88PepeM
  • 13N. Moumi NgamaleuM
  • 7BrunoD
  • 47M. MammadovF
  • 60C. Efzona
  • 12K. SemaM
  • 42G. MichaelM
Coach: Albert Celades

Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs Pafos

Red Bull Salzburg

  • W1-0TSV Hartberg1 August 2026

Pafos

  • W2-0HNK Hajduk Split30 July 2026
  • L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Red Bull Salzburg and Pafos in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga6420154+1114

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Pafos has not started the league season yet. Full tables: Bundesliga · UEFA Europa Conference League

Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs Pafos

  • 6 August 2026Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 PafosUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and Pafos

Red Bull Salzburg

  • K. Konaté4 goals
  • H. Tabaković3 goals
  • Y. Vertessen2 goals1 assists

Pafos

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.