Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Palmeiras 2-0 Sao Paulo.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Palmeiras, 29% draw, 28% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 43% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
- D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Mirassol30 August 2026
- W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
- L2-3away to Fluminense15 August 2026
Sao Paulo
- W2-0Atletico Mineiro5 September 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
- D1-1Coritiba16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 56 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
- 22 March 2026Sao Paulo 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 1 March 2026Palmeiras 2–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
- 24 January 2026Palmeiras 3–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
- 5 October 2025Sao Paulo 2–3 PalmeirasSerie A
- 11 May 2025Palmeiras 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 11 March 2025Palmeiras 1–0 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
- J. López8 goals4 assists
- Maurício7 goals1 assists
Sao Paulo
- Luciano8 goals2 assists
- J. Calleri7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.