12 September 2026, 21:30 UTC

Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result

Allianz Parque, Sao Paulo
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Palmeiras 2-0 Sao Paulo.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Palmeiras, 29% draw, 28% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Palmeiras at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Palmeiras99%Draw1%Sao Paulo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Pablo Maia
38'
•Luis Osorio
39'
Luis Osorio
Agustín Giay
45+5'
Gustavo Gómez
45+4'
⚽Murilo
45'
🔁J. Piquerezout: Arthur Gabriel
46'
🔁A. Giayout: Khellven
46'
46'
🔁Caulyout: Robert Arboleda
⚽Vitor Roqueassist: Khellven
51'
65'
🔁Wendellout: Iago Borduchi
65'
🔁Djhordneyout: Danielzinho
65'
🔁Andre Silvaout: Artur
🔁Lucas Evangelistaout: Luis Pacheco
67'
🔁J. Ariasout: Felipe Anderson
67'
Murilo
76'
🔁J. Lopezout: Larson
77'
77'
🔁Ferreiraout: P. dos Santos
Larson
85'

Match stats — Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo

57%Possession43%
19Shots8
7On target2
9Corners6
2.43xG1.29

Goals against chances

Palmeiras2 from 2.43 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sao Paulo0 from 1.29 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Palmeiras 3-4-2-1
  • 1Carlos MiguelG
  • 26MuriloD
  • 15G. GomezD
  • 3Bruno FuchsD
  • 4A. GiayM
  • 8Andreas PereiraM
  • 30Lucas EvangelistaM
  • 22J. PiquerezM
  • 11J. AriasF
  • 42J. LopezF
  • 9Vitor RoqueF
Substitutes
  • 14Marcelo LombaG
  • 21Bruno BertinatoG
  • 56Arthur GabrielD
  • 12KhellvenD
  • 43BenedettiD
  • 32E. MartinezM
  • 50Luis PachecoM
  • 48LarsonM
  • 7Felipe AndersonM
Coach: Ferreira Abel
Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1
  • 31Carlos CoronelG
  • 28NewtonD
  • 2R. ToloiD
  • 54Luis OsorioD
  • 27Victor SaM
  • 48DjhordneyM
  • 29Pablo MaiaM
  • 18WendellM
  • 80CaulyF
  • 11FerreiraF
  • 17Andre SilvaF
Substitutes
  • 23RafaelG
  • 5Robert ArboledaD
  • 19Lucas RamonD
  • 53IsacD
  • 12Iago BorduchiD
  • 94DanielzinhoM
  • 8Marcos AntonioM
  • 46Pedro FerreiraM
  • 34P. dos SantosF
Coach: Junior Dorival

Form going into Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo

Palmeiras

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Mirassol30 August 2026
  • W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Fluminense15 August 2026
  • D0-0Internacional9 August 2026

Sao Paulo

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Atletico Mineiro5 September 2026
  • W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
  • D1-1Coritiba16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Gremio8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Palmeiras failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sao Paulo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sao Paulo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Palmeiras34211036223+3973
10Sao Paulo34128143939044

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo

  • 22 March 2026Sao Paulo 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 1 March 2026Palmeiras 2–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
  • 24 January 2026Palmeiras 3–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
  • 5 October 2025Sao Paulo 2–3 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 11 May 2025Palmeiras 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 11 March 2025Palmeiras 1–0 Sao PauloPaulista - A1

The full Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo record →

Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Sao Paulo

Palmeiras

GoalsAssists

  • J. López107
  • Maurício101

Sao Paulo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Calleri102
  • Luciano91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Palmeiras beat Sao Paulo 2–0. The model had made a win for Palmeiras its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Murilo 45' for Palmeiras, Vitor Roque 51' for Palmeiras. Sent off: Luis Osorio (Sao Paulo) 39'. On expected goals it finished 2.43–1.29.

How the call on Palmeiras v Sao Paulo has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Palmeiras's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Palmeiras win43%▼ −5
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Sao Paulo win28%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.