Gremio vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Gremio 1-2 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Gremio, 28% draw, 40% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasco da Gama at 40% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gremio vs Vasco da Gama
Gremio
- L0-1away to Vitoria7 September 2026
- W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
- L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
Vasco da Gama
- L0-1away to Fluminense6 September 2026
- W3-1Cruzeiro30 August 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
- L0-3Santos16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Gremio | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 28 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Vasco da Gama
- 22 March 2026Vasco da Gama 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 20 November 2025Gremio 2–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 19 July 2025Vasco da Gama 1–1 GremioSerie A
- 28 July 2024Gremio 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 14 April 2024Vasco da Gama 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 3 December 2023Gremio 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Leading scorers: Gremio and Vasco da Gama
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.