23 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis Super League 1 prediction & result

Panetolikos Stadium, Agrinio
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Panetolikos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Panetolikos, 26% draw, 36% Asteras Tripolis — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Panetolikos at 38% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Panetolikos99%Draw1%Asteras Tripolis0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽G. Granathassist: C. Manrique
6'
32'
•Kalvin Ketu
⚽C. Mavriasassist: G. Satsias
58'
64'
🔁F. Brorssonout: G. Bouzoukis
64'
🔁K. Ketuout: A. Papakanellos
64'
🔁F. Orozcoout: B. Kimpioka
🔁A. Bassiout: K. Aleksic
65'
73'
🔁E. Gonzalezout: F. Macheda
🔁G. Granathout: A. Prodromitis
74'
🔁M. Mejiaout: N. Erakovic
74'
78'
⚽F. Machedaassist: Ricardinho
⚽K. Aleksicassist: Esteban Diego
80'
🔁Esteban Diegoout: M. Nakamba
84'
84'
🔁G. Kotsirasout: N. Kaltsas
🔁G. Satsiasout: S. Soumah
85'

Match stats — Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis

40%Possession60%
4Shots14
4On target6
1Corners3
0.5xG1.19

Goals against chances

Panetolikos3 from 0.50 xGmore than the chances were worth
Asteras Tripolis1 from 1.19 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Panetolikos 4-2-3-1
  • 99Y. KucherenkoG
  • 35C. MavriasD
  • 2G. GranathD
  • 49N. StajicD
  • 15C. ManriqueD
  • 28L. Kojic
  • 18G. SatsiasM
  • 10A. BassiM
  • 22Esteban Diego
  • 12M. DjenepoM
  • 9M. MejiaF
Substitutes
  • 23V. XenopoulosG
  • 1M. Pardalos
  • 4E. OlssonD
  • 65A. Apostolopoulos
  • 5A. ProdromitisD
  • 6M. NakambaM
  • 44N. ErakovicM
  • 77E. NikolaouM
  • 19A. BregouM
Coach: Giannis Anastasiou
Asteras Tripolis 4-2-2-2
  • 1N. PapadopoulosG
  • 27G. KotsirasD
  • 16F. BrorssonD
  • 6K. ChrysopoulosD
  • 28A. MendezD
  • 21D. KourbelisM
  • 10E. GonzalezM
  • 19F. OrozcoM
  • 11K. Ketu
  • 7J. BartoloF
  • 39RicardinhoF
Substitutes
  • 61V. ChatziemmanouilG
  • 91T. KakadiarisG
  • 17A. TereziouF
  • 74D. LaskarisD
  • 14J. ChiccoM
  • 8G. BouzoukisM
  • 80B. Perez
  • 44A. PapakanellosM
  • 9F. MachedaF
Coach: Georgios Antonopoulos

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Panetolikos430174+39
13Asteras Tripolis401327-51

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis

  • 21 May 2026Panetolikos 1–2 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
  • 22 April 2026Asteras Tripolis 2–1 PanetolikosSuper League 1
  • 14 February 2026Panetolikos 3–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
  • 22 November 2025Asteras Tripolis 1–1 PanetolikosSuper League 1
  • 13 January 2025Asteras Tripolis 2–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
  • 21 September 2024Panetolikos 1–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1

Leading scorers: Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis

Panetolikos

  • G. Granath2 goals
  • K. Opoku2 goals
  • K. Aleksić1 goals

Asteras Tripolis

  • F. Macheda1 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.