22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis Super League 1 prediction & result

Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium, Kalamata
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Kalamata 2-3 Aris Thessalonikis.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Kalamata, 30% draw, 25% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kalamata at 45% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kalamata3%Draw94%Aris Thessalonikis3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Bolivarassist: A. Mendes Moreira
41'
P. Kaloutsikidis
44'
Rodrigues
44'
45+2'
Fabiano
45'
⚽U. Racic (pen)
⚽K. Vargasassist: J. Cataldi
60'
I. Chatzitheodoridis
79'
83'
J. Petris
84'
U. Racic
J. Bolivar
85'
88'
⚽Fabianoassist: B. Garre
90'
⚽Fabianoassist: O. Boussaid

Match stats — Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis

37%Possession63%
7Shots19
3On target7
1Corners10
1.41xG2.69

Goals against chances

Kalamata2 from 1.41 xGmore than the chances were worth
Aris Thessalonikis3 from 2.69 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kalamata 4-4-2
  • 1Giannis GeliosG
  • 22Petros KaloutsikidisD
  • 4Stefanos StroungisD
  • 97RodriguesD
  • 17Julio AlonsoD
  • 77Kenneth VargasM
  • 7Juan CataldiM
  • 6Djibril DiarraM
  • 20Ahmad Mendes MoreiraM
  • 24Erik HamzaF
  • 9Jovanny BolívarF
Substitutes
  • 12Ilias ChatzitheodoridisD
  • 29Uroš IgnjatovićD
  • 32Julián BonettoF
  • 8Argyrios LiatsikourasM
  • 44Axel GuessandD
  • 40Nikola VasiljevićG
  • 70Pavlos VarelasG
  • 18Panagiotis PanagiotouD
  • 19Junior BakayokoD
Aris Thessalonikis 4-2-3-1
  • 33Ricardo VelhoG
  • 2Jeremy PetrisD
  • 4FabianoD
  • 97Fredrik JensenD
  • 27Noah FadigaD
  • 20Tom Dele-BashiruM
  • 10Uroš RačićM
  • 34Sebastián PalaciosM
  • 7Benjamín GarréM
  • 70Giannis GianniotasM
  • 17Rafa MirF
Substitutes
  • 49Othmane BoussaidM
  • 19Migouel AlfarelaF
  • 80Loren MorónF
  • 6Kostas GalanopoulosM
  • 1Sokratis DioudisG
  • 24Apostolos BarmpopoulosG
  • 88Marko KerkezM
  • 45Matar ThiamD
  • 30Christos KamtsisD

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Kalamata411267-14
7Aris Thessalonikis4202510-56

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis

  • 22 August 2026Kalamata 2–3 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1

Leading scorers: Kalamata and Aris Thessalonikis

Kalamata

  • E. Hamza2 goals
  • J. Bolívar2 goals

Aris Thessalonikis

  • Fabiano2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.