22 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos Super League 1 prediction & result

Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Atromitos.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Olympiakos Piraeus, 22% draw, 22% Atromitos — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 56% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Olympiakos Piraeus96%Draw4%Atromitos0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
Theocharis Tsingaras
24'
Panagiotis Tsantilas
26'
Jere Uronen
Gelson Martins
44'
Santiago Hezze
53'
🔁B. Onyemaechiout: N. Tiknizyan
57'
🔁L. Pirolaout: D. Carmo
57'
🔁C. Mouzakitisout: L. Scipioni
57'
58'
🔁C. Nunezout: S. Tsiloulis
58'
🔁P. Tsantilasout: G. Tzovaras
Rodinei
65'
66'
🔁S. Pnevmonidisout: L. Lyratzis
🔁K. Fortounisout: J. Roca
67'
🔁G. Saout: Jota Silva
74'
79'
Sotiris Tsiloulis
⚽Ayoub El Kaabi (pen)
80'
⚽D. Carmo
82'
83'
🔁S. Zuberout: A. Karamanis
84'
Athanasios Karamanis
Rodinei
90+1'
90+3'
Georgios Tzovaras

Match stats — Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos

69%Possession31%
26Shots8
10On target1
14Corners4
3.17xG0.3

Goals against chances

Olympiakos Piraeus1 from 3.17 xGless than the chances were worth
Atromitos0 from 0.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Olympiakos Piraeus 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. OrtegaG
  • 23RodineiD
  • 4Z. SmajlovicD
  • 5L. PirolaD
  • 70B. OnyemaechiD
  • 32S. HezzeM
  • 96C. MouzakitisM
  • 7K. FortounisM
  • 8G. SaM
  • 10G. MartinsM
  • 9A. El KaabiF
Substitutes
  • 31B. PopovicG
  • 91D. StournarasG
  • 2M. SaliakasD
  • 45P. RetsosD
  • 71N. TiknizyanD
  • 6D. CarmoD
  • 14D. GarciaM
  • 16L. ScipioniM
  • 22ChiquinhoM
Coach: Luis Mendilibar Jose
Atromitos 4-4-2
  • 1L. ChoutetsiotisG
  • 12M. MountesD
  • 4D. StavropoulosD
  • 24G. MitoglouD
  • 21J. UronenD
  • 19P. Tsantilas
  • 5T. TsingarasM
  • 8S. MoutoussamyM
  • 10S. PnevmonidisM
  • 11C. NunezF
  • 7S. ZuberF
Substitutes
  • 88S. DiengG
  • 31V. Athanasiou
  • 2L. LyratzisD
  • 6A. KaramanisD
  • 32H. MagnussonD
  • 44D. TsakmakisD
  • 16G. PapadopoulosD
  • 33K. BatosM
  • 23S. TsiloulisM
Coach: Dusan Kerkez

Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos

Olympiakos Piraeus

  • L1-2away to NEC Nijmegen11 August 2026
  • D0-0NEC Nijmegen4 August 2026

Atromitos

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Olympiakos Piraeus421132+17
10Atromitos402235-22

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos

  • 22 August 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
  • 10 January 2026Atromitos 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
  • 22 November 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 3–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
  • 19 January 2025Atromitos 1–2 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
  • 29 September 2024Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
  • 21 December 2023Atromitos 0–0 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1

Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos

Olympiakos Piraeus

  • Jota Silva2 goals

Atromitos

No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.