Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Monaco.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Paris Saint Germain, 29% draw, 24% Monaco — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Paris Saint Germain at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco
Line-ups
- 39M. SafonovG
- 2A. HakimiD
- 5MarquinhosD
- 51W. PachoD
- 33W. Zaïre-EmeryD
- 87João NevesM
- 17VitinhaM
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 14D. DouéF
- 11M. AklioucheF
- 7K. KvaratskheliaF
- 10O. DembéléF
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 27Pedro FernándezM
- 22M. GodtsF
- 21L. HernándezD
- 4BeraldoD
- 24Senny MayuluM
- 9Ferran TorresF
- 6I. ZabarnyiD
- 1L. HrádeckýG
- 2VandersonD
- 72Sadibou SanéD
- 15E. DierD
- 20Flávio NazinhoD
- 8L. CamaraM
- 6D. ZakariaM
- 28M. CoulibalyM
- 10A. GolovinM
- 17S. Idumbo-MuzamboM
- 29Paris Josua BrunnerF
- 11M. AblineF
- 47S. BenzahraM
- 14M. BierethF
- 7M. DetourbetF
- 16P. KöhnG
- 13C. Mawissa ElebiD
- 46A. SoubeirM
- 4J. TezeD
- 49I. TouréM
Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco
Paris Saint Germain
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026
- D2-2Rennes23 August 2026
Monaco
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Marseille30 August 2026
- W4-1Gornik Zabrze27 August 2026
- W1-0away to Le Havre23 August 2026
- W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze20 August 2026
What these results say
- Monaco won every one of these 4 matches.
- Monaco scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco
- 6 March 2026Paris Saint Germain 1–3 MonacoLigue 1
- 25 February 2026Paris Saint Germain 2–2 MonacoUEFA Champions League
- 17 February 2026Monaco 2–3 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
- 29 November 2025Monaco 1–0 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 7 February 2025Paris Saint Germain 4–1 MonacoLigue 1
Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Monaco
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres41
- A. Hakimi32
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monaco won 2–1 at Paris Saint Germain. The model had leaned towards a win for Paris Saint Germain at 47% and given a win for Monaco 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Marcos Aoás Corrêa 31' for Paris Saint Germain, Flavio Nazinho 58' for Monaco, Stanis Idumbo 72' for Monaco.