Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Monaco.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Paris Saint Germain, 29% draw, 24% Monaco — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris Saint Germain at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco
Line-ups
- 39M. SafonovG
- 2A. HakimiD
- 5MarquinhosD
- 51W. PachoD
- 33W. Zaïre-EmeryD
- 87João NevesM
- 17VitinhaM
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 14D. DouéF
- 11M. AklioucheF
- 7K. KvaratskheliaF
- 10O. DembéléF
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 27Pedro FernándezM
- 22M. GodtsF
- 21L. HernándezD
- 4BeraldoD
- 24Senny MayuluM
- 9Ferran TorresF
- 6I. ZabarnyiD
- 1L. HrádeckýG
- 2VandersonD
- 72Sadibou SanéD
- 15E. DierD
- 20Flávio NazinhoD
- 8L. CamaraM
- 6D. ZakariaM
- 28M. CoulibalyM
- 10A. GolovinM
- 17S. Idumbo-MuzamboM
- 29Paris Josua BrunnerF
- 11M. AblineF
- 47S. BenzahraM
- 14M. BierethF
- 7M. DetourbetF
- 16P. KöhnG
- 13C. Mawissa ElebiD
- 46A. SoubeirM
- 4J. TezeD
- 49I. TouréM
Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco
Paris Saint Germain
- D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Rennes23 August 2026
Monaco
- W2-0Marseille30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Le Havre23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 2 | Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco
- 4 September 2026Paris Saint Germain 1–2 MonacoLigue 1
- 6 March 2026Paris Saint Germain 1–3 MonacoLigue 1
- 25 February 2026Paris Saint Germain 2–2 MonacoUEFA Champions League
- 17 February 2026Monaco 2–3 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
- 29 November 2025Monaco 1–0 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 7 February 2025Paris Saint Germain 4–1 MonacoLigue 1
Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Monaco
Paris Saint Germain
- Ferran Torres3 goals
- Marquinhos2 goals
Monaco
- Paris Josua Brunner3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.