4 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Gliwice
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Piast Gliwice 3-0 GKS Katowice.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Piast Gliwice, 28% draw, 31% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Piast Gliwice at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Piast Gliwice99%Draw1%GKS Katowice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Sancaassist: S. Ntamack
5'
9'
Erik Jirka
13'
Eman Marković
27'
Mateusz Kowalczyk
Jakub Łabojko
35'
⚽Juandeassist: Q. Boisgard
35'
40'
Mateusz Wdowiak
46'
🔁E. Jirkaout: M. Wasielewski
🔁J. Labojkoout: O. Lesniak
52'
59'
🔁E. Markovicout: S. Bartlewicz
🔁I. Limaout: S. Mucha
65'
🔁S. Ntamackout: A. Katsantonis
65'
Quentin Boisgard
68'
75'
🔁M. Wdowiakout: A. Czerwinski
🔁Q. Boisgardout: O. Maziarz
82'
🔁L. Sancaout: M. Kucharski
82'
84'
🔁M. Kowalczykout: J. Kokosinski
⚽H. Vallejoassist: M. Kucharski
85'
87'
Lukas Klemenz
90+1'
Alan Czerwiński

Match stats — Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice

56%Possession44%
11Shots21
7On target4
3Corners8
0.87xG1.55

Goals against chances

Piast Gliwice3 from 0.87 xGmore than the chances were worth
GKS Katowice0 from 1.55 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Piast Gliwice 4-4-2
  • 75D. GrilG
  • 99E. TwumasiD
  • 5JuandeD
  • 4J. CzerwinskiD
  • 36J. LewickiD
  • 90I. LimaM
  • 27J. LabojkoM
  • 17Q. BoisgardM
  • 80H. VallejoM
  • 19S. NtamackF
  • 11L. SancaF
Substitutes
  • 12M. Mendes-DudzinskiG
  • 47J. GrelichG
  • 28F. BorowskiD
  • 3E. FikajD
  • 15L. PitanD
  • 77S. MuchaM
  • 31O. LesniakM
  • 18O. MaziarzM
  • 10A. KatsantonisF
Coach: Daniel Mysliwiec
GKS Katowice 3-4-3
  • 87G. KobylakG
  • 6L. KlemenzD
  • 4A. JedrychD
  • 55P. RestaD
  • 97E. JirkaM
  • 77M. KowalczykM
  • 68B. WolskiM
  • 7M. WdowiakM
  • 15E. MarkovicF
  • 17I. ShkurinF
  • 27B. NowakF
Substitutes
  • 1M. KikolskiG
  • 30A. CzerwinskiD
  • 14M. Olsen
  • 10M. WedrychowskiM
  • 31S. BartlewiczM
  • 26D. RasakM
  • 22S. MilewskiM
  • 23M. WasielewskiD
  • 19K. LukasiakM
Coach: Rafal Gorak

Form going into Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice

Piast Gliwice

  • W2-0away to Motor Lublin29 August 2026
  • D1-1Legia Warszawa22 August 2026
  • L3-4Wieczysta Kraków15 August 2026

GKS Katowice

  • W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze30 August 2026
  • W5-0Wisla Plock23 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Motor Lublin16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Piast Gliwice84131513+213
10GKS Katowice73041311+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice

  • 4 September 2026Piast Gliwice 3–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 1 July 2026GKS Katowice 0–1 Piast GliwiceFriendlies Clubs
  • 10 May 2026Piast Gliwice 0–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 8 November 2025GKS Katowice 1–3 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
  • 16 February 2025GKS Katowice 0–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
  • 12 August 2024Piast Gliwice 2–2 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and GKS Katowice

Piast Gliwice

  • Leandro Sanca4 goals1 assists
  • Hugo Vallejo3 goals

GKS Katowice

  • I. Shkurin5 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.