5 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1 prediction & result

Le Havre
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Le Havre 1-2 Stade Brestois 29.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Le Havre, 30% draw, 36% Stade Brestois 29 — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Stade Brestois 29 at 36% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Le Havre0%Draw3%Stade Brestois 2997%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Lionel Mpasi-Nzau
10'
12'
⚽Kamory Doumbia (pen)
22'
🔁Kenny Lalaout: Luck Zogbe
Didier Digard
38'
39'
Kamory Doumbia
Junior Mwanga
45+2'
🔁Rassoul Ndiayeout: Sota Nakamura
45'
51'
⚽Kamory Doumbiaassist: Mama Baldé
🔁Josh Majaout: Rayan Fofana
62'
🔁Timothée Pembeleout: Enzo Koffi
62'
67'
🔁Mama Baldéout: Noah Edjouma
75'
🔁Kamory Doumbiaout: Lucas Tousart
75'
🔁Pathé Mboupout: Giovani Versini
75'
🔁Hugo Magnettiout: Joseph Nonge
⚽Rayan Fofana (pen)
79'
🔁Elias Jelertout: Djibril Ouziad
79'
🔁Lionel Mpasi-Nzauout: Gauthier Gallon
90+4'

Match stats — Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29

56%Possession44%
18Shots19
4On target9
5Corners5

Line-ups

Le Havre 3-4-2-1
  • 77L. MpasiG
  • 15A. SekoD
  • 6J. MwangaD
  • 5A. ToubaD
  • 12E. JelertM
  • 26S. EbonogM
  • 7A. RichardsonM
  • 32T. PembéléM
  • 14R. NdiayeM
  • 25M. SamattaM
  • 9J. MajaF
Substitutes
  • 44I. BounebM
  • 38R. FofanaF
  • 93G. GallonG
  • 27E. Koffi VinetteF
  • 17K. MizutaM
  • 78D. MosengoM
  • 30S. NakamuraF
  • 20Djibril OuziadD
  • 23V. SassoD
Coach: D. Digard
Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. SelvikG
  • 70K. LalaD
  • 71R. Le GuenD
  • 4G. LlorisD
  • 2B. LockoD
  • 13J. ChotardM
  • 8H. MagnettiM
  • 17Mama BaldéM
  • 23K. DoumbiaM
  • 9P. MboupM
  • 19L. AjorqueF
Substitutes
  • 29L. TousartM
  • 10G. VersiniF
  • 30M. PatouilletG
  • 7J. Nonge BoendeM
  • 39D. N´GuessanF
  • 32L. C. Laine M.M
  • 11N. EdjoumaF
  • 18J. BourgaultD
  • 20L. ZogbeD
Coach: Julien Lachuer

Form going into Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29

Le Havre

  • D1-1away to Lyon29 August 2026
  • L0-1Monaco23 August 2026

Stade Brestois 29

  • D2-2Toulouse29 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Le Mans22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Le Havre402224-22
7Stade Brestois 2941216605

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29

  • 5 September 2026Le Havre 1–2 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 8 March 2026Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Le HavreLigue 1
  • 29 October 2025Le Havre 1–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 26 January 2025Le Havre 0–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 6 October 2024Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Le HavreLigue 1
  • 3 March 2024Stade Brestois 29 1–0 Le HavreLigue 1

Leading scorers: Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29

Le Havre

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Stade Brestois 29

  • K. Doumbia4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.