4 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Lyon vs Auxerre Ligue 1 prediction & result

Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Lyon 3-1 Auxerre.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Lyon, 28% draw, 24% Auxerre — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lyon at 48% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lyon99%Draw1%Auxerre0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Loïs Openda
18'
22'
•Cameron Archer
26'
Arthur Piedfort
⚽Felix Bacherassist: Ernest Nuamah
28'
⚽Zachary Athekameassist: Loïs Openda
31'
42'
⚽Cameron Archer
⚽Ernest Nuamahassist: Pavel Šulc
53'
Felix Bacher
62'
66'
🔁Elikya Legrosout: Rayan Mandengue
66'
🔁Naouirou Ahamadaout: Pierre Ekwah
66'
🔁Remy Labeau Lascaryout: Aristide Zossou
🔁Ernest Nuamahout: Kail Boudache
67'
🔁Pavel Šulcout: Khalis Merah
67'
68'
Rayan Mandengue
🔁Mads Bidstrupout: Tanner Tessmann
76'
Tyler Morton
77'
77'
🔁Cameron Archerout: Romain Faivre
🔁Tyler Mortonout: Noah Teye Nartey
86'
🔁Felix Bacherout: Ruben Kluivert
86'
90+3'
🔁Lamine Syout: Lamfia Dioubaté

Match stats — Lyon vs Auxerre

63%Possession37%
21Shots8
7On target3
9Corners5

Line-ups

Lyon 4-3-3
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 13Z. AthekameD
  • 20F. BacherD
  • 19M. NiakhatéD
  • 16AbnerD
  • 2M. BidstrupM
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 7E. NuamahF
  • 10P. ŠulcF
  • 17L. OpendaF
Substitutes
  • 3N. TagliaficoD
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 26K. BoudacheF
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 45R. HimbertF
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 22Clinton MataD
  • 18K. MerahM
  • 99N. NarteyM
Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Auxerre 4-2-3-1
  • 23M. DiopG
  • 27L. SyD
  • 15C. MakossoD
  • 35E. LegrosD
  • 92C. AkpaD
  • 5K. DanoisM
  • 46A. PiedfortM
  • 10D. NamasoM
  • 8N. AhamadaM
  • 3R. Labeau LascaryM
  • 9C. ArcherF
Substitutes
  • 36T. DevernoisM
  • 20S. DiomandéD
  • 34L. DioubateM
  • 17P. EkwahM
  • 21R. FaivreM
  • 32R. MandengueD
  • 1P. NardiG
  • 77Aristide ZossouM
  • 7J. CasimirF
Coach: W. Still

Form going into Lyon vs Auxerre

Lyon

  • D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026

Auxerre

  • L1-3Angers29 August 2026
  • L2-5away to Lens22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Lyon422062+48
15Auxerre4103511-63

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lyon vs Auxerre

  • 4 September 2026Lyon 3–1 AuxerreLigue 1
  • 25 April 2026Lyon 3–2 AuxerreLigue 1
  • 23 November 2025Auxerre 0–0 LyonLigue 1
  • 13 April 2025Auxerre 1–3 LyonLigue 1
  • 27 October 2024Lyon 2–2 AuxerreLigue 1
  • 17 February 2023Auxerre 2–1 LyonLigue 1

Leading scorers: Lyon and Auxerre

Lyon

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Auxerre

  • C. Archer2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.