5 September 2026, 15:15 UTC

Lens vs Lorient Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Lens 0-1 Lorient.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Lens, 27% draw, 26% Lorient — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lens at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lens0%Draw6%Lorient94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Nathaniel Adjei
🔁Matthieu Udolout: Souleymane Sagnan
24'
Yassine Titraoui
26'
54'
⚽Mamadou Koneassist: Panos Katseris
🔁Yassine Titraouiout: Andrija Bulatović
60'
🔁Amadou Haidaraout: Michaël Cuisance
61'
67'
🔁Panos Katserisout: Théo Le Bris
67'
🔁Mamadou Koneout: Ibrahima Balde
67'
🔁Noah Mbambaout: Arthur Avom
🔁Ruben Aguilarout: Florian Sotoca
70'
🔁Thorgan Hazardout: Odsonne Édouard
70'
75'
🔁Gabin Bernardeauout: Isak Jensen
Michał Skóraś
77'
Souleymane Sagnan
85'

Match stats — Lens vs Lorient

57%Possession43%
17Shots8
6On target3
8Corners0

Line-ups

Lens 3-4-2-1
  • 40R. RisserG
  • 32K. AntonioD
  • 25I. GaniouD
  • 14M. UdolD
  • 2R. AguilarM
  • 21A. HaidaraM
  • 8Y. TitraouiM
  • 22M. SkóraśM
  • 10F. ThauvinM
  • 9T. HazardM
  • 19A. SimaF
Substitutes
  • 5A. BulatovićM
  • 38Mezian MesloubM
  • 31S. SagnanD
  • 7F. SotocaF
  • 11O. ÉdouardF
  • 29F. IvanovićF
  • 24J. GraditD
  • 16M. GorgelinG
  • 27M. CuisanceM
Coach: D. Toppmöller
Lorient 3-4-2-1
  • 38Y. MvogoG
  • 20D. SyllaD
  • 3M. TalbiD
  • 32N. AdjeiD
  • 77P. KatserisM
  • 72N. MbambaM
  • 8N. CadiouM
  • 43K. KouassiM
  • 33G. BernardeauM
  • 17J. MakengoM
  • 42Mamadou KoneF
Substitutes
  • 11T. Le BrisM
  • 21B. KamaraG
  • 2A. GeorgenD
  • 19S. FayeF
  • 18I. BaldéF
  • 62A. AvomM
  • 15A. TosinF
  • 55N. ObaretinD
  • 10I. JensenF
Coach: A. Dujeux

Form going into Lens vs Lorient

Lens

  • L1-2away to Strasbourg29 August 2026
  • W5-2Auxerre22 August 2026

Lorient

  • L1-2Estac Troyes29 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Nice22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Lens411287+14
9Lorient41214405

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lens vs Lorient

  • 5 September 2026Lens 0–1 LorientLigue 1
  • 14 March 2026Lorient 2–1 LensLigue 1
  • 2 November 2025Lens 3–0 LorientLigue 1
  • 3 May 2024Lens 2–0 LorientLigue 1
  • 4 November 2023Lorient 0–0 LensLigue 1
  • 21 May 2023Lorient 1–3 LensLigue 1

Leading scorers: Lens and Lorient

Lens

  • F. Thauvin3 goals1 assists
  • F. Ivanović2 goals

Lorient

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.