3 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Toulouse vs Lille Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Toulouse 0-1 Lille.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Toulouse, 29% draw, 32% Lille — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Toulouse at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Toulouse0%Draw4%Lille96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Santiago Hidalgo
20'
•Thomas Jorgensen
34'
45'
🔁Osame Sahraouiout: Dilane Bakwa
45'
🔁Calvin Verdonkout: Romain Perraud
🔁Santiago Hidalgoout: Julián Vignolo
57'
57'
🔁Olivier Giroudout: Ayase Ueda
58'
🔁Ethan Mbappeout: Ngal'ayel Mukau
🔁Jacen Russell-Roweout: Casper Tengstedt
65'
🔁Rafik Messaliout: Ismaïl Diallo
66'
71'
🔁Nabil Bentalebout: Basar Onal
🔁Guillaume Restesout: Mathys Niflore
71'
🔁Alexis Vossahout: Niklas Schmidt
72'
73'
⚽Ayase Ueda

Match stats — Toulouse vs Lille

53%Possession47%
24Shots10
10On target6
6Corners2

Line-ups

Toulouse 4-2-3-1
  • 16G. RestesG
  • 22R. MessaliD
  • 3M. McKenzieD
  • 2R. NicolaisenD
  • 12C. TapéD
  • 23C. CásseresM
  • 6A. VossahM
  • 9S. HidalgoM
  • 8T. JørgensenM
  • 37Y. AziziM
  • 13J. Russell-RoweF
Substitutes
  • 7Julián VignoloF
  • 5S. KoumbassaD
  • 94I. DialloD
  • 18M. AmougouM
  • 60M. NifloreG
  • 11S. OppongF
  • 31N. SchmidtM
  • 14N. SigurM
  • 20C. TengstedtF
Coach: Jens Berthel Askou
Lille 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. ÖzerG
  • 22Tiago SantosD
  • 3N. NgoyD
  • 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
  • 24C. VerdonkD
  • 21B. AndréM
  • 6N. BentalebM
  • 8E. MbappéM
  • 10H. HaraldssonM
  • 11O. SahraouiM
  • 9O. GiroudF
Substitutes
  • 26I. CossierD
  • 12O. GillG
  • 14M. KjærgaardM
  • 17N. MukauM
  • 15R. PerraudD
  • 28G. PerrinF
  • 18A. UedaF
  • 7D. BakwaF
  • 19B. ÖnalF
Coach: Davide Ancelotti

Form going into Toulouse vs Lille

Toulouse

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
  • L0-2Lyon22 August 2026

Lille

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Paris Saint Germain28 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Angers23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Toulouse103431514+113
2Lille10631147+721

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toulouse vs Lille

  • 12 April 2026Toulouse 0–4 LilleLigue 1
  • 14 September 2025Lille 2–1 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 12 April 2025Toulouse 1–2 LilleLigue 1
  • 5 October 2024Lille 2–1 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 25 February 2024Toulouse 3–1 LilleLigue 1
  • 12 November 2023Lille 1–1 ToulouseLigue 1

The full Toulouse vs Lille record →

Leading scorers: Toulouse and Lille

Toulouse

GoalsAssists

  • C. Tengstedt51

Lille

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lille won 1–0 at Toulouse. The model had leaned towards a win for Toulouse at 39% and given a win for Lille 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Ayase Ueda 73' for Lille.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.