3 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Toulouse vs Lille Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Toulouse 0-1 Lille.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Toulouse, 29% draw, 32% Lille — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Toulouse at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Toulouse0%Draw4%Lille96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Santiago Hidalgo
20'
•Thomas Jorgensen
34'
45'
🔁Osame Sahraouiout: Dilane Bakwa
45'
🔁Calvin Verdonkout: Romain Perraud
🔁Santiago Hidalgoout: Julián Vignolo
57'
57'
🔁Olivier Giroudout: Ayase Ueda
58'
🔁Ethan Mbappeout: Ngal'ayel Mukau
🔁Jacen Russell-Roweout: Casper Tengstedt
65'
🔁Rafik Messaliout: Ismaïl Diallo
66'
71'
🔁Nabil Bentalebout: Basar Onal
🔁Guillaume Restesout: Mathys Niflore
71'
🔁Alexis Vossahout: Niklas Schmidt
72'
73'
⚽Ayase Ueda

Match stats — Toulouse vs Lille

53%Possession47%
24Shots10
10On target6
6Corners2

Line-ups

Toulouse 4-2-3-1
  • 16G. RestesG
  • 22R. MessaliD
  • 3M. McKenzieD
  • 2R. NicolaisenD
  • 12C. TapéD
  • 23C. CásseresM
  • 6A. VossahM
  • 9S. HidalgoM
  • 8T. JørgensenM
  • 37Y. AziziM
  • 13J. Russell-RoweF
Substitutes
  • 7Julián VignoloF
  • 5S. KoumbassaD
  • 94I. DialloD
  • 18M. AmougouM
  • 60M. NifloreG
  • 11S. OppongF
  • 31N. SchmidtM
  • 14N. SigurM
  • 20C. TengstedtF
Coach: Jens Berthel Askou
Lille 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. ÖzerG
  • 22Tiago SantosD
  • 3N. NgoyD
  • 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
  • 24C. VerdonkD
  • 21B. AndréM
  • 6N. BentalebM
  • 8E. MbappéM
  • 10H. HaraldssonM
  • 11O. SahraouiM
  • 9O. GiroudF
Substitutes
  • 26I. CossierD
  • 12O. GillG
  • 14M. KjærgaardM
  • 17N. MukauM
  • 15R. PerraudD
  • 28G. PerrinF
  • 18A. UedaF
  • 7D. BakwaF
  • 19B. ÖnalF
Coach: Davide Ancelotti

Form going into Toulouse vs Lille

Toulouse

  • D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
  • L0-2Lyon22 August 2026

Lille

  • D2-2Paris Saint Germain28 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Angers23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Toulouse402247-32
1Lille431072+510

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toulouse vs Lille

  • 12 April 2026Toulouse 0–4 LilleLigue 1
  • 14 September 2025Lille 2–1 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 12 April 2025Toulouse 1–2 LilleLigue 1
  • 5 October 2024Lille 2–1 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 25 February 2024Toulouse 3–1 LilleLigue 1
  • 12 November 2023Lille 1–1 ToulouseLigue 1

Leading scorers: Toulouse and Lille

Toulouse

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Lille

  • Tiago Santos2 goals
  • O. Giroud1 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.