Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Premijer Liga prediction & result
Final score: Siroki Brijeg 2-1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Siroki Brijeg, 29% draw, 29% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Siroki Brijeg at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 51Ivan PuljićG
- 26Marijan OršolićD
- 5Bartul MarkovinaD
- 14Niko VukančićD
- 47Ivan KrstanovicD
- 18Marko MatićM
- 90Tomislav TomićM
- 11David Virgili FernandezM
- 77Robert MarijanovićM
- 30Ivan KraljevićD
- 10Filip MatićF
- 9Luizinho GuedesF
- 44Kristian SesarF
- 8Mario Kordić-GružićM
- 4Božo PrusinaM
- 21Filip JelčićM
- 1Eugen CibanG
- 3Mateo SoldoD
- 13Lukas MagđinskiD
- 7Dominik SimčićM
- 1Tarik AbdulahovićG
- 24Ajdin RaščićD
- 5Amar IbrišimovićD
- 4Marin KaramarkoD
- 15Bojan NastićD
- 88Samir RadovacM
- 6Aleksa PejićM
- 49Gabriel Cunha GeraldoM
- 10Madžid ŠošićM
- 27Deni MiloševićM
- 29Muharem HuskovićF
- 14Matej CvetanoskiM
- 12Ante KulišF
- 23Eldar DragovićM
- 33Collin SeedorfD
- 20Giovanni TroupeeD
- 99Ángel JiménezG
- 16Dzenan ŠabićM
- 8Afan FočoM
- 22Admir GojakM
Form going into Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Siroki Brijeg
Premijer Liga
- L0-2away to Radnik Bijeljina31 October 2026
- D0-0Čelik24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Sloga Doboj16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Velež9 October 2026
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Premijer Liga
- L0-4Zrinjski31 October 2026
- L0-2away to FK Sarajevo24 October 2026
- D1-1away to BSK Banja Luka17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Radnik Bijeljina11 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Siroki Brijeg had two goals or fewer.
- Siroki Brijeg failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Siroki Brijeg failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 17 |
| 6 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 29 August 2026Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1–1 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 21 May 2026Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–2 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 22 March 2026Siroki Brijeg 1–1 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 4 December 2025Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3–3 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 21 September 2025Siroki Brijeg 1–0 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 18 May 2025Siroki Brijeg 3–2 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
Leading scorers: Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Siroki Brijeg
GoalsAssists
- M. Matić11
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
GoalsAssists
- M. Husković20
- Rodrigo Piloto20
- A. Pejić12
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Siroki Brijeg beat Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–1. The model had made a win for Siroki Brijeg its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: F. Matic 21' for Siroki Brijeg, G. Cunha 33' for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, B. Markovina 90+1' for Siroki Brijeg.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Siroki Brijeg a 19.8% chance to finish in the bottom two: 14.7% after a win, 20.3% after a draw, 25.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.7%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.
For Zeljeznicar Sarajevo the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 24.7% going in: 30.7% after a win, 25.6% after a draw, 19.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.7%, 5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premijer Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Siroki Brijeg v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Siroki Brijeg win42%▲ +1
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.