Velež vs Čelik Premijer Liga prediction & result
Final score: Velež 1-1 Čelik.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Velež, 27% draw, 30% Čelik — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Velež at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1Faris RibićG
- 5Abdallah Ali MohamedD
- 8Ante HrkaćD
- 18Said DuranovićD
- 87Nino VukasovićD
- 10Đani SalčinM
- 45Kenan ÐulimanM
- 83Mahir BešićF
- 7Ajdin NukićM
- 28Almir AganspahićF
- 80Nino StojanovićM
- 11Aldin MešićM
- 32Benjamin TatarM
- 19Mahir RahimicF
- 44Eldar MehmedovićM
- 95Emil VelićG
- 31Anel ZategaM
- 14Benjamin RedzicM
- 47Vedad AbidovićM
- 65Kenan KarićM
- 1Arman ŠutkovićG
- 24Halid ŠabanovićD
- 4Kenan HorićD
- 6Amer MašetićD
- 27Nemanja TomaševićD
- 88Faruk GogićM
- 28Joseph AmoahM
- 14Aldin HrvanovićM
- 20Bruno JenjićM
- 11Samy FarajM
- 9Dejan VidićF
- 99Anes MašićF
- 7Dževad SijamijaF
- 8Andres MohedanoM
- 15Marin PopovićM
- 5Harun VardoM
- 13Vladimir SavićG
- 2Amer HodžićD
- 19Nedim SmajlovićD
- 17Albin OmićD
Form going into Velež vs Čelik
Velež
Premijer Liga
- W1-0away to Sloga Doboj1 November 2026
- L2-3BSK Banja Luka25 October 2026
- D0-0Siroki Brijeg9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Zrinjski19 September 2026
Čelik
Premijer Liga
- L2-4Borac Banja Luka31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Siroki Brijeg24 October 2026
- L0-3Zrinjski18 October 2026
- D0-0FK Sarajevo11 October 2026
What these results say
- Velež failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Velež had two goals or fewer.
- Čelik did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Čelik failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Velež | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 12 |
| 8 | Čelik | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Velež vs Čelik
- 28 August 2026Čelik 3–0 VeležPremijer Liga
- 25 October 2019Čelik 0–2 VeležPremijer Liga
- 3 August 2019Velež 1–2 ČelikPremijer Liga
Leading scorers: Velež and Čelik
Velež
GoalsAssists
- N. Stojanović11
Čelik
GoalsAssists
- A. Hrvanović22
- Anes Mašić11
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Velež and Čelik drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Velež at 43% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: D. Vidic 60' for Čelik, A. Hrkac 90+3' for Velež.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Velež a 24.0% chance to finish in the bottom two: 19.4% after a win, 25.8% after a draw, 30.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.8%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
For Čelik the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 24.9% going in: 17.5% after a win, 24.2% after a draw, 29.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 24.2%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premijer Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.