Persepolis FC vs Sanat Naft Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Persepolis FC 3-1 Sanat Naft.
Before kick-off the model made it 72% Persepolis FC, 18% draw, 10% Sanat Naft — fair odds of 1.39, 5.56 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Persian Gulf Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Persepolis FC at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Persepolis FC vs Sanat Naft
Persepolis FC
No earlier matches on record this season.
Sanat Naft
Persian Gulf Pro League
- L1-2Chadormalu SC12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Persepolis FC | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 23 |
| 16 | Sanat Naft | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Persepolis FC vs Sanat Naft
- 18 April 2024Sanat Naft 0–3 Persepolis FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 2 November 2023Persepolis FC 2–2 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
- 8 February 2023Sanat Naft 1–2 Persepolis FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 31 August 2022Persepolis FC 2–0 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
- 6 March 2022Sanat Naft 2–0 Persepolis FCPersian Gulf Pro League
Leading scorers: Persepolis FC and Sanat Naft
Persepolis FC
GoalsAssists
- I. Sergeev10
Sanat Naft
No player in Persian Gulf Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Persepolis FC beat Sanat Naft 3–1. The model had made a win for Persepolis FC its most likely outcome, at 72%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: I. Sergeev 5' for Persepolis FC, A. Alipour (penalty) 53' for Persepolis FC, M. Baseri 67' for Sanat Naft, O. Urunov 84' for Persepolis FC.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Persepolis FC a 37.1% chance to finish top of the regular season: 41.5% after a win, 22.3% after a draw, 12.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.5%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.
For Sanat Naft the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 81.3% going in: 51.0% after a win, 73.3% after a draw, 85.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 85.6%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Persepolis FC v Sanat Naft has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 65% / 21% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 72% / 18% / 10%: the biggest move is Persepolis FC's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Persepolis FC win72%▲ +7
- Draw18%▼ −3
- Sanat Naft win10%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.