5 September 2026, 18:15 UTC

Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Motor Lublin 2-3 Legia Warszawa.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Motor Lublin, 29% draw, 35% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Motor Lublin at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Motor Lublin96%Draw4%Legia Warszawa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Bartosz Kapustka
45'
⚽R. Augustyniak (pen)
🔁P. Meyerout: Y. Bourhane
61'
⚽K. Czubakassist: K. Lukoszek
65'
66'
🔁W. Urbanskiout: H. Arreiol
66'
🔁M. Sevcikout: R. Adamski
⚽K. Czubakassist: M. Ndiaye
68'
🔁Fabio Ronaldoout: M. Aiko
71'
71'
🔁M. Szczepaniakout: J. Zewlakow
71'
🔁J. Kuchtaout: L. Zjawinski
Mateusz Łęgowski
78'
80'
🔁Z. Arsenicout: A. Reca
90+14'
Rafał Adamski
90+12'
Jakub Żewłakow
🔁K. Lukoszekout: T. Santos
90+4'
🔁B. Bereszynskiout: M. Bartos
90+4'
🔁M. Legowskiout: Kikis
90+4'
90'
⚽J. Zewlakow
90'
⚽J. Zewlakowassist: R. Vinagre

Match stats — Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa

48%Possession52%
13Shots10
6On target6
5Corners2
1.48xG2.26

Goals against chances

Motor Lublin2 from 1.48 xGmore than the chances were worth
Legia Warszawa3 from 2.26 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Motor Lublin 4-5-1
  • 33G. TratnikG
  • 17K. LukoszekD
  • 18B. BereszynskiD
  • 4T. PlavoticD
  • 24F. LubereckiD
  • 30M. NdiayeM
  • 6M. LegowskiM
  • 2P. MeyerM
  • 7I. RodriguesM
  • 11Fabio RonaldoM
  • 10K. CzubakF
Substitutes
  • 71M. PopaG
  • 29T. SantosD
  • 5A. AkatovD
  • 39M. BartosD
  • 27Y. BourhaneM
  • 8KikisM
  • 19K. SzymanekM
  • 70M. AikoM
  • 9Rony LopesF
Coach: Mariusz Misiura
Legia Warszawa 3-4-2-1
  • 89O. HindrichG
  • 91K. PiatkowskiD
  • 8R. AugustyniakD
  • 24Z. ArsenicD
  • 11K. ChodynaM
  • 53W. UrbanskiM
  • 67B. KapustkaM
  • 19R. VinagreM
  • 23M. SevcikF
  • 17M. SzczepaniakF
  • 7J. KuchtaF
Substitutes
  • 1I. BrkicG
  • 5R. DezielM
  • 4D. SzymanskiM
  • 13A. RecaD
  • 6H. ArreiolM
  • 99S. KovacikF
  • 20J. ZewlakowF
  • 79L. ZjawinskiF
  • 9R. AdamskiF
Coach: Marek Papszun

Form going into Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa

Motor Lublin

  • L0-2Piast Gliwice29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Korona Kielce22 August 2026
  • W1-0GKS Katowice16 August 2026

Legia Warszawa

  • D1-1Slask Wroclaw28 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Piast Gliwice22 August 2026
  • W5-0Radomiak Radom14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Motor Lublin8125915-65
2Legia Warszawa8440167+916

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa

  • 5 September 2026Motor Lublin 2–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 1 September 2026Motor Lublin 3–0 Legia WarszawaCup
  • 23 May 2026Legia Warszawa 4–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 1 December 2025Motor Lublin 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 10 March 2025Motor Lublin 3–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 1 September 2024Legia Warszawa 5–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa

Motor Lublin

  • K. Czubak5 goals

Legia Warszawa

  • R. Augustyniak3 goals1 assists
  • R. Adamski3 goals
  • Ł. Zjawiński3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.