3 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Poznan
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Lech Poznan 2-1 Jagiellonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Lech Poznan, 28% draw, 28% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lech Poznan at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lech Poznan97%Draw3%Jagiellonia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽P. Rodriguezassist: J. Pereira
43'
45'
⚽Y. Kobayashiassist: B. Vital
46'
🔁Y. Kobayashiout: G. Montoia
59'
🔁S. Lozanoout: A. Klynge
59'
🔁O. Sowout: K. Szmyt
🔁G. Berggrenout: F. Jagiello
63'
🔁A. Sayyadmaneshout: Y. Agnero
64'
68'
🔁E. Kozlowskiout: H. Finndell
🔁L. Palmaout: L. Bengtsson
72'
🔁P. Rodriguezout: M. Ishak
73'
P. Walemark
80'
80'
R. Conceicao
82'
🔁N. Prelecout: Y. Sylla
🔁P. Walemarkout: R. Gumny
83'
⚽R. Gumnyassist: M. Gurgul
87'
90+2'
H. Finndell

Line-ups

Lech Poznan
  • 1M. Lis
  • 2J. Pereira
  • 72M. Skrzypczak
  • 27W. Monka
  • 15M. Gurgul
  • 22R. Murawski
  • 5G. Berggren
  • 10P. Walemark
  • 21P. Rodriguez
  • 77L. Palma
  • 17A. Sayyadmanesh
Substitutes
  • 33M. Pruchniewski
  • 4J. Moutinho
  • 59T. Yegbe
  • 20R. Gumny
  • 24F. Jagiello
  • 9M. Ishak
  • 14L. Bengtsson
  • 7Y. Agnero
Coach: Niels Frederiksen
Jagiellonia
  • 50S. Abramowicz
  • 15N. Wojtuszek
  • 5B. Vital
  • 4Y. Kobayashi
  • 2C. Polak
  • 30O. Sow
  • 6T. Romanczuk
  • 85E. Kozlowski
  • 27R. Conceicao
  • 21S. Lozano
  • 99N. Prelec
Substitutes
  • 1M. Perchel
  • 44A. Konstantopoulos
  • 20B. Wdowik
  • 23G. Montoia
  • 14H. Finndell
  • 19A. Klynge
  • 8D. Drachal
  • 32A. Cirkovic
  • 9D. Rallis
Coach: Adrian Siemieniec

Form going into Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia

Lech Poznan

  • W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026
  • W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026

Jagiellonia

  • W5-2away to Raków Częstochowa30 August 2026
  • L0-2Widzew Łódź9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Lech Poznan7511126+616
8Jagiellonia74031110+112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia

  • 3 September 2026Lech Poznan 2–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 4 April 2026Jagiellonia 0–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 28 September 2025Lech Poznan 2–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 16 March 2025Jagiellonia 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 14 September 2024Lech Poznan 5–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 17 February 2024Jagiellonia 1–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Jagiellonia

Lech Poznan

  • A. Sayyadmanesh4 goals

Jagiellonia

  • N. Prelec3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.