Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Lech Poznan 2-1 Jagiellonia.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Lech Poznan, 28% draw, 28% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Lech Poznan at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1M. Lis
- 2J. Pereira
- 72M. Skrzypczak
- 27W. Monka
- 15M. Gurgul
- 22R. Murawski
- 5G. Berggren
- 10P. Walemark
- 21P. Rodriguez
- 77L. Palma
- 17A. Sayyadmanesh
- 33M. Pruchniewski
- 4J. Moutinho
- 59T. Yegbe
- 20R. Gumny
- 24F. Jagiello
- 9M. Ishak
- 14L. Bengtsson
- 7Y. Agnero
- 50S. Abramowicz
- 15N. Wojtuszek
- 5B. Vital
- 4Y. Kobayashi
- 2C. Polak
- 30O. Sow
- 6T. Romanczuk
- 85E. Kozlowski
- 27R. Conceicao
- 21S. Lozano
- 99N. Prelec
- 1M. Perchel
- 44A. Konstantopoulos
- 20B. Wdowik
- 23G. Montoia
- 14H. Finndell
- 19A. Klynge
- 8D. Drachal
- 32A. Cirkovic
- 9D. Rallis
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia
Lech Poznan
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026
- D2-2away to FC Thun27 August 2026
- W7-0FC Thun20 August 2026
- W5-0away to KI Klaksvik14 August 2026
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
Jagiellonia
All competitions we cover
- W5-2away to Raków Częstochowa30 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Iberia 199927 August 2026
- W4-0FC Iberia 199920 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rangers13 August 2026
- L0-2Widzew Łódź9 August 2026
What these results say
- Lech Poznan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lech Poznan had three goals or more.
- Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 13 | +21 | 32 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia
- 4 April 2026Jagiellonia 0–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 28 September 2025Lech Poznan 2–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 16 March 2025Jagiellonia 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 14 September 2024Lech Poznan 5–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 17 February 2024Jagiellonia 1–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Jagiellonia
Lech Poznan
GoalsAssists
- P. Wålemark73
- Pablo Rodríguez67
- A. Sayyadmanesh50
Jagiellonia
GoalsAssists
- N. Prelec42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lech Poznan beat Jagiellonia 2–1. The model had made a win for Lech Poznan its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: P. Rodriguez 43' for Lech Poznan, Y. Kobayashi 45' for Jagiellonia, R. Gumny 87' for Lech Poznan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.