5 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Exbud Arena, Kielce
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Korona Kielce 1-1 Wisla Krakow.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Korona Kielce, 30% draw, 34% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Korona Kielce at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Korona Kielce96%Draw4%Wisla Krakow0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
James Igbekeme
⚽O. Lingr
24'
46'
🔁J. Igbekemeout: A. Rodado
49'
Julius Ertlthaler
🔁K. Ciszekout: K. Matuszewski
58'
🔁M. Fassbenderout: M. Ameyaw
58'
62'
🔁J. Ertlthalerout: M. Carbo
63'
🔁E. Youanout: M. Kuziemka
🔁O. Lingrout: N. Barczak
67'
🔁M. Stepinskiout: D. Bak
67'
73'
🔁M. Bozicout: R. Mikulec
78'
🔁K. Dudaout: V. A. Meseguer Cavas
Wiktor Długosz
80'
80'
Jordi Sánchez
84'
Víctor Meseguer
🔁M. Remacleout: Nono
84'
Slobodan Rubežić
90+3'
90'
⚽A. Urygaassist: J. Sanchez

Match stats — Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow

39%Possession61%
9Shots21
5On target3
5Corners6
1.14xG1.35

Goals against chances

Korona Kielce1 from 1.14 xGabout what the chances were worth
Wisla Krakow1 from 1.35 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Korona Kielce 4-2-3-1
  • 1X. DziekonskiG
  • 71W. DlugoszD
  • 23S. RubezicD
  • 2A. MosorD
  • 21K. CiszekD
  • 18P. HellebrandM
  • 35K. JakubczykM
  • 32O. LingrM
  • 8M. RemacleM
  • 22M. FassbenderM
  • 14M. StepinskiF
Substitutes
  • 87R. MamlaG
  • 24B. SmolarczykD
  • 44K. SotiriouD
  • 67N. Barczak
  • 10NonoM
  • 11K. MatuszewskiD
  • 37H. ZwoznyD
  • 9S. DavidovicM
  • 19M. AmeyawM
Coach: Jacek Zielinski
Wisla Krakow 4-5-1
  • 1M. LubikG
  • 34R. GigerD
  • 6A. UrygaD
  • 29D. GrujcicD
  • 52J. KrzyzanowskiD
  • 27E. YouanM
  • 12J. IgbekemeM
  • 7J. ErtlthalerM
  • 41K. DudaM
  • 17M. BozicM
  • 11J. SanchezF
Substitutes
  • 93B. NeugebauerG
  • 97W. BiedrzyckiD
  • 4R. MikulecD
  • 13M. MaisonneuveD
  • 50M. KutwaD
  • 8M. CarboM
  • 23V. A. Meseguer CavasM
  • 51M. KuziemkaM
  • 9A. RodadoF
Coach: Mariusz Jop

Form going into Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow

Korona Kielce

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Wisla Plock28 August 2026
  • D1-1Motor Lublin22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Widzew Łódź15 August 2026
  • D1-1Legia Warszawa8 August 2026
  • L0-2Gornik Zabrze1 August 2026

Wisla Krakow

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Wieczysta Kraków29 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Pogon Szczecin23 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze16 August 2026
  • W2-1Wisla Plock7 August 2026
  • L3-4away to Piast Gliwice1 August 2026

What these results say

  • Korona Kielce scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Korona Kielce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Korona Kielce had two goals or fewer.
  • Wisla Krakow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Wisla Krakow conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Wisla Krakow had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Korona Kielce145361421-718
5Wisla Krakow147342219+324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow

  • 11 July 2020Wisla Krakow 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 23 February 2020Wisla Krakow 2–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 14 September 2019Korona Kielce 1–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 10 May 2019Wisla Krakow 1–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 9 March 2019Korona Kielce 2–6 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Wisla Krakow

Korona Kielce

GoalsAssists

  • M. Stępiński60

Wisla Krakow

GoalsAssists

  • Ángel Rodado41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Korona Kielce and Wisla Krakow drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Korona Kielce at 36% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: O. Lingr 24' for Korona Kielce, A. Uryga 90' for Wisla Krakow. On expected goals it finished 1.14–1.35.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.