Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles FC 1-3 Minnesota United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Los Angeles FC, 24% draw, 24% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Los Angeles FC at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. LlorisG
- 14Sergi PalenciaD
- 5R. PorteousD
- 33A. LongD
- 4E. SeguraD
- 66M. ChoinièreM
- 6Igor JesusM
- 9A. SiebM
- 7Son Heung-MinM
- 81L. WaltaM
- 99D. BouangaF
- 19T. BoydF
- 8M. DelgadoM
- 17J. EbobisseF
- 12T. HasalG
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 91N. TafariD
- 21R. RaposoM
- 18J. ShaffelburgF
- 20S. VasquezM
- 12D. CallenderG
- 52Cherrion ValeriusD
- 28J. DíazD
- 23M. DugganD
- 13A. MarkanichD
- 8T. ChancalayM
- 25N. TriantisM
- 30O. GeneM
- 18M. GonzalezM
- 26J. PereyraF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 27D. TaylorD
- 6P. StroudM
- 1A. SmirG
- 11M. MaloneF
- 16A. JacksonM
- 21B. HlongwaneF
- 3K. DuncanD
- 22Marcus CaldeiraF
- 15M. BoxallD
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer
- D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy26 October 2026
- D1-1away to New York City FC17 October 2026
- W3-1Austin15 October 2026
Minnesota United FC
Major League Soccer
- W3-1Sporting Kansas City29 October 2026
- D0-0away to Houston Dynamo25 October 2026
- W3-2St. Louis City17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 47 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC
- 25 April 2026Minnesota United FC 0–1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2025Minnesota United FC 0–1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 22 February 2025Los Angeles FC 1–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 30 May 2024Los Angeles FC 2–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 17 March 2024Minnesota United FC 2–0 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2023Los Angeles FC 5–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga185
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah184
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Minnesota United FC won 3–1 at Los Angeles FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Los Angeles FC at 52% and given a win for Minnesota United FC 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Joaquín Pereyra 29' for Minnesota United FC, Cherrion Valerius 34' for Minnesota United FC, Joaquín Pereyra 81' for Minnesota United FC, Sergio Vasquez 89' for Los Angeles FC. On expected goals it finished 0.85–0.68.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Minnesota United FC a 57.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.1% after a win, 42.4% after a draw, 77.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.1%, 38.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Los Angeles FC v Minnesota United FC has moved
First published on 19 Oct at 54% / 24% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 52% / 24% / 24%: the biggest move is Los Angeles FC's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Los Angeles FC win52%▼ −2
- Draw24%=
- Minnesota United FC win24%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.