Puskas Academy vs Paks NB I prediction & result
Final score: Puskas Academy 3-2 Paks.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Puskas Academy, 19% draw, 30% Paks — fair odds of 1.96, 5.26 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puskas Academy at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Puskas Academy vs Paks
Line-ups
- 72Bendegúz LehoczkiG
- 22Roland SzolnokiD
- 14Wojciech GollaD
- 21Georgiy HarutyunyanD
- 33Brandon Ormonde-OttewillD
- 6Laros DuarteM
- 10Palkó DárdaiM
- 74Martin KernM
- 4Michael OkekeM
- 8Dániel LukácsM
- 90András NémethF
- 66Zsombor VargaM
- 20Mikael SoisaloF
- 9Lamin ColleyF
- 1Tamás MarkekG
- 96Roland OrjánD
- 76Barna PálD
- 80Bendegúz FarkasD
- 68Daniel BruggerM
- 42Zsolt KrupaM
- 1Ádám KovácsikG
- 6Milán GyőrfiD
- 12Gabor VasD
- 30János SzabóD
- 20Márió ZekeD
- 14Erik SilyeD
- 17Milán PetőM
- 21Kristóf PappM
- 19Kevin HorváthM
- 10Zsolt HarasztiM
- 7József SzalaiF
- 24Bence LenzsérD
- 22József WindeckerM
- 18Gergő GyurkitsM
- 29Barna TóthF
- 28Márk GyetvánG
- 5Bálint VécseiM
- 4Andor LapuM
- 8Balázs BaloghM
- 9János HahnF
Form going into Puskas Academy vs Paks
Puskas Academy
- W3-2away to MTK Budapest7 August 2026
Paks
- D2-2Budapest Honved9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Paks | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Puskas Academy vs Paks
- 16 August 2026Puskas Academy 3–2 PaksNB I
- 19 April 2026Paks 1–0 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 24 January 2026Puskas Academy 1–2 PaksNB I
- 27 September 2025Paks 3–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 19 April 2025Paks 2–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 14 December 2024Puskas Academy 3–1 PaksNB I
Leading scorers: Puskas Academy and Paks
Puskas Academy
- A. Németh2 goals1 assists
- G. Harutyunyan2 goals
- L. Colley2 goals
Paks
- J. Szalai6 goals1 assists
- M. Pető3 goals
- Z. Haraszti2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.