16 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Baltika vs Spartak Moscow Premier League prediction & result

Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Baltika 1-2 Spartak Moscow.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Baltika, 28% draw, 28% Spartak Moscow — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Baltika at 44% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baltika0%Draw4%Spartak Moscow96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽M. Ugaldeassist: M. Daku
⚽A. Mendel
23'
Mingiyan Beveev
47'
49'
⚽P. Solari
🔁M. Petrovout: F. Moufi
58'
🔁C. Offorout: B. Gil
58'
Aymane Mourid
73'
Eduardo Anderson
76'
Nikolay Titkov
76'
76'
Manfred Ugalde
76'
Gedson Fernandes
76'
Christopher Wooh
77'
🔁P. Solariout: V. Saus
🔁E. Civicout: M. Ryadno
78'
🔁A. Mendelout: I. Belikov
78'
🔁out: V. Pospelov
85'
87'
🔁R. Zobninout: V. Parada
90+2'
🔁M. Ugaldeout: D. Prutsev
90+2'
🔁Marquinhosout: I. Dmitriev

Match stats — Baltika vs Spartak Moscow

35%Possession65%
12Shots7
5On target4
5Corners8

Line-ups

Baltika 5-4-1
  • 1E. LatyshonokG
  • 22M. BeveevD
  • 2S. VaratynovD
  • 21E. AndersonD
  • 4N. GassamaD
  • 77E. CivicD
  • 73M. PetrovM
  • 8A. MendelM
  • 5A. MouridM
  • 11N. TitkovM
  • 9C. OfforF
Substitutes
  • 81I. KukushkinG
  • 44E. LyubakovG
  • 18F. MoufiD
  • 24L. MouyokoloD
  • 68M. RyadnoD
  • 14S. KovacM
  • 7K. ShiltsovM
  • 42V. PospelovM
  • 10I. PetrovM
Coach: Andrey Talalaev
Spartak Moscow 4-1-4-1
  • 98A. MaksimenkoG
  • 83G. FernandesD
  • 3C. WoohD
  • 6S. BabicD
  • 47R. ZobninD
  • 68R. LitvinovM
  • 7P. SolariM
  • 18N. UmyarovM
  • 19M. DakuM
  • 10MarquinhosM
  • 9M. UgaldeF
Substitutes
  • 56A. DovbnyaG
  • 1I. PomazunG
  • 33V. ParadaD
  • 4A. DjikuD
  • 97D. DenisovD
  • 25D. PrutsevM
  • 17V. SausM
  • 40I. SorokinM
  • 27I. DmitrievM
Coach: Carlos Carcedo Juan

Form going into Baltika vs Spartak Moscow

Baltika

  • W2-0away to Krylia Sovetov8 August 2026

Spartak Moscow

  • L1-2FC Krasnodar9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Baltika93241412+211
3Spartak Moscow9612167+919

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baltika vs Spartak Moscow

  • 16 August 2026Baltika 1–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 29 November 2025Baltika 1–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 26 July 2025Spartak Moscow 0–3 BaltikaPremier League
  • 14 May 2024Baltika 1–0 Spartak MoscowCup
  • 25 November 2023Baltika 0–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 31 July 2023Spartak Moscow 2–1 BaltikaPremier League

Leading scorers: Baltika and Spartak Moscow

Baltika

  • B. Gil4 goals1 assists

Spartak Moscow

  • M. Ugalde3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.