Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Challenge League prediction & result
Final score: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0-0 Neuchatel Xamax FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 25% draw, 17% Neuchatel Xamax FC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 50L. Seji
- 4D. Moussadek
- 5L. Hajrulahu
- 22T. Barbet
- 19C. Sow
- 3B. Conus
- 25J. Nkama
- 7T. Bouchlarhem
- 30R. Dantas Fernandes
- 10R. Freitas
- 11M. Sartoretti
- 21K. Martin
- 34N. Sutter
- 28I. Kaloga
- 44H. Lukembila
- 77V. Tritten
- 80J. A. Tur
- 8N. Lusuena
- 57N. Emeran
- 17J. Atangana
- 13U. Likar
- 60M. Camara
- 4E. Abedini
- 7M. Facchinetti
- 16L. Seydoux
- 81D. Carraco
- 8R. Bayard
- 77Y. Peverelli
- 24I. Keita
- 32P. Ambrose
- 28N. Gjorgjev
- 1A. Mossi
- 21L. Bergsma
- 3J. Fontana
- 36S. Reinhard
- 41A. Bourezak
- 9J. Unjanque
- 35A. Azemi
- 10L. Mulaj
- 11N. Garcia
Form going into Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Challenge League
- W3-0away to Rapperswil9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Yverdon Sport20 September 2026
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Challenge League
- W3-0FC Winterthur9 October 2026
- L0-3Rapperswil18 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 31 |
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
- 21 August 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 15 May 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–1 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
- 8 February 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 10 December 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
- 3 October 2025Neuchatel Xamax FC 0–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 18 April 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–0 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
The result against the call
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Neuchatel Xamax FC drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 58% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 80.5% chance to win the league: 85.5% after a win, 74.7% after a draw, 69.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 74.7%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.
For Neuchatel Xamax FC the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 35.2% going in: 51.6% after a win, 38.0% after a draw, 29.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.0%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.