Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Raków Częstochowa 2-5 Jagiellonia.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Raków Częstochowa, 27% draw, 28% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Raków Częstochowa at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. TrelowskiG
- 77D. G. Debohi
- 25B. RacovitanD
- 7F. TudorD
- 17J. JendrykaM
- 23K. StruskiM
- 10V. KocherginM
- 20J. C. SilvaM
- 9P. MakuchF
- 11M. EmreliF
- 88A. Molnar
- 71T. KaricG
- 2J. NapierajD
- 4S. SvarnasD
- 3A. BrorssonD
- 21T. PienkoM
- 22O. AbrahamM
- 6O. RepkaM
- 15O. KwiatkowskiM
- 80L. Diaby-FadigaM
- 50S. AbramowiczG
- 15N. WojtuszekD
- 44A. KonstantopoulosD
- 4Y. KobayashiD
- 23G. MontoiaD
- 6T. RomanczukM
- 85E. KozlowskiM
- 27R. ConceicaoM
- 11J. ImazM
- 7K. SzmytM
- 99N. PrelecF
- 1M. PerchelG
- 62S. PankiewiczD
- 2C. PolakD
- 5B. VitalD
- 14H. FinndellM
- 21S. LozanoM
- 19A. KlyngeM
- 8D. DrachalM
- 9D. RallisF
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia
Raków Częstochowa
All competitions we cover
- L2-3HNK Hajduk Split27 August 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hammarby FF13 August 2026
- L2-3Zaglebie Lubin9 August 2026
Jagiellonia
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to FC Iberia 199927 August 2026
- W4-0FC Iberia 199920 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rangers13 August 2026
- L0-2Widzew Łódź9 August 2026
- W2-1Rangers6 August 2026
What these results say
- Raków Częstochowa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raków Częstochowa | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 12 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia
- 13 May 2026Raków Częstochowa 0–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 2 November 2025Jagiellonia 1–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 10 May 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 10 November 2024Jagiellonia 2–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 10 December 2023Jagiellonia 4–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 22 July 2023Raków Częstochowa 3–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia
Raków Częstochowa
GoalsAssists
- P. Makuch81
Jagiellonia
GoalsAssists
- N. Prelec42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Jagiellonia won 5–2 at Raków Częstochowa. The model had leaned towards a win for Raków Częstochowa at 45% and given a win for Jagiellonia 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Emreli 23' for Raków Częstochowa, J. Imaz (penalty) 31' for Jagiellonia, N. Prelec 37' for Jagiellonia, J. Jendryka 56' for Raków Częstochowa, G. Montoia (penalty) 76' for Jagiellonia, O. Sow 78' for Jagiellonia, Y. Sylla 89' for Jagiellonia. On expected goals it finished 1.29–4.44.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.