Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Raków Częstochowa 2-5 Jagiellonia.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Raków Częstochowa, 27% draw, 28% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raków Częstochowa at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia
Raków Częstochowa
- L2-3HNK Hajduk Split27 August 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hammarby FF13 August 2026
- D0-0Hammarby FF6 August 2026
Jagiellonia
- L0-2Widzew Łódź9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 3 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia
- 13 May 2026Raków Częstochowa 0–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 2 November 2025Jagiellonia 1–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 10 May 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 10 November 2024Jagiellonia 2–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 10 December 2023Jagiellonia 4–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 22 July 2023Raków Częstochowa 3–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch5 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assists
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.