30 August 2026, 15:15 UTC

Rennes vs Le Mans Ligue 1 prediction & result

Roazhon Park, Rennes
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Rennes 3-2 Le Mans.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Rennes, 27% draw, 25% Le Mans — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rennes at 48% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Lepaulassist: A. Thomasson
5'
⚽V. Rongierassist: I. Soumare
26'
30'
⚽L. Mafoutaassist: L. Calodat
Issa Soumaré
48'
51'
•Harold Voyer
54'
⚽L. Mafouta (pen)
🔁S. Szymanskiout: M. Camara
60'
🔁I. Soumareout: A. Nordin
60'
60'
🔁L. Bretelleout: J. Vercruysse
66'
Alexandre Lauray
68'
Djibril Sidibé
68'
🔁L. Calodatout: D. Sidibe
68'
🔁D. Gueyeout: A. Rabillard
🔁V. Rongierout: L. Blas
74'
🔁M. Tamariout: E. Mayenda
74'
🔁Q. Merlinout: M. Nagida
78'
81'
🔁N. Kocikout: E. Hatfout
81'
🔁A. Bourabaaout: M. Robin
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
90+12'
Esteban Lepaul
90+6'
•Arnaud Nordin
90+2'
90+12'
Harold Voyer
90+13'
•Louis Mafouta
⚽E. Lepaul (pen)
90'
90'
⚽

Match stats — Rennes vs Le Mans

64%Possession36%
22Shots12
8On target5
8Corners6
2.66xG2.99

Goals against chances

Rennes3 from 2.66 xGabout what the chances were worth
Le Mans2 from 2.99 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rennes 4-3-3
  • 16N. LemaitreG
  • 95P. FrankowskiD
  • 4C. CresswellD
  • 48A. Ait BoudlalD
  • 26Q. MerlinD
  • 17S. SzymanskiM
  • 21V. RongierM
  • 28A. ThomassonM
  • 11M. TamariF
  • 9E. LepaulF
  • 90I. SoumareF
Substitutes
  • 60K. BelazzougG
  • 14B. ReynoldsD
  • 24A. RouaultD
  • 18M. NagidaD
  • 45M. CamaraM
  • 10L. BlasF
  • 70A. NordinF
  • 12E. MayendaF
  • 65H. Do MarcolinoF
Coach: Franck Haise
Le Mans 3-1-4-2
  • 98N. KocikG
  • 15N. BoisseD
  • 21T. EyoumD
  • 5H. VoyerD
  • 8A. LaurayM
  • 18L. BuadesM
  • 29L. Bretelle
  • 11A. BourabaaM
  • 22L. CalodatM
  • 25D. GueyeF
  • 14L. MafoutaF
Substitutes
  • 1E. HatfoutG
  • 16R. TorrenteD
  • 19D. SidibeD
  • 23D. TraoreM
  • 10J. VercruysseM
  • 24M. RobinM
  • 20W. HarhouzF
  • 9A. RabillardF
  • 7B. BrahimiF
Coach: Patrick Videira

Form going into Rennes vs Le Mans

Rennes

  • D2-2Paris Saint Germain23 August 2026

Le Mans

  • D2-2Stade Brestois 2922 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Rennes431085+310
14Le Mans403178-13

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rennes vs Le Mans

  • 30 August 2026Rennes 3–2 Le MansLigue 1
  • 26 October 2011Le Mans 0–0 RennesCoupe de la Ligue

Leading scorers: Rennes and Le Mans

Rennes

  • E. Lepaul3 goals
  • A. Thomasson1 goals2 assists
  • S. Szymański1 goals1 assists

Le Mans

  • L. Mafouta3 goals1 assists
  • A. Bourabaa2 goals2 assists
  • L. Calodat1 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.